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Day 2 Team Analysis from Pro Tour Born of the Gods

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The second day of a Pro Tour is when the heat really turns up. The final Swiss rounds determine the Top 8, and from there the winner will be crowned. Let's see how the teams did. Check out the Pro Tour Born of the Gods team rosters on this page.

After the Day 1 cut, 252 players remained to play Day 2. You needed a minimum of twelve match points to make the cut. Day 2 mimicked Day 1, with another three-round Draft and five rounds of Modern.

Team Day 2 Day 1 Percent
ChannelFireball 15 15 100.00%
Flipsidegaming.com 6 6 100.00%
Seattle + Michael 5 5 100.00%
MTGMadness 9 10 90.00%
MTGMintCard 7 8 87.50%
Finland-US 6 7 85.71%
FacetoFaceGames 11 13 84.62%
13 Angry Men 8 10 80.00%
CFB Pantheon 12 15 80.00%
Japan 4 5 80.00%
Elaborate Ruse 9 12 75.00%
TCGPlayer.com 8 11 72.73%
Revolution 14 21 66.67%
No Team 134 242 55.37%
Card Monster Games 2 5 40.00%
Doge 3 8 37.50%

This is a look at how each team did in putting their members into Day 2. Most impressive on this list is ChannelFireball, all of whom made Day 2 out of fifteen members!

These numbers vaguely reflect the overall performance of each team from Day 1. Let's look again at that table for comparison:

Overall Win Percentage
MTGMadness 63.75%
TCGPlayer.com 62.07%
ChannelFireball 60.83%
Flipsidegaming.com 60.42%
Seattle + Michael 58.97%
MTGMintCard 58.73%
CFB Pantheon 58.12%
FacetoFaceGames 56.44%
Finland-US 56.36%
Elaborate Ruse 55.79%
13 Angry Men 55.00%
Japan 50.00%
Revolution 48.72%
No Team 46.54%
Card Monster Games 42.86%
Doge 36.07%

Almost all the teams have a positive Day 2 conversion rate, which is good. But making Day 2 doesn't necessarily mean you're in great position. Going 4-4 on Day 1 is not likely to put you into Top 8 contention.

Let's remove all the players who didn't make Day 2 and look at the teams' Day 2 positioning.

Average Day 2 Match Points
TCGPlayer.com 18.375
Card Monster Games 18
CFB Pantheon 17.41667
MTGMadness 17
MTGMintCard 17
13 Angry Men 16.875
Elaborate Ruse 16.66667
FacetoFaceGames 16.63636
Flipsidegaming.com 16.5
Revolution 16
No Team 15.82836
Seattle + Michael 15.6
ChannelFireball 15.4
Finland-US 14.66667
Japan 14.25
Doge 14

Interestingly, the teams in good position with an average of eighteen or more match points are TCGPlayer.com and Card Monster Games. Card Monster Games only put two of its five members into Day 2, but they were each 6-2. TCGPlayer's Day 2 participants had a ridiculously strong stance here, with only two out of eight having less than eighteen match points. By the end of the day, one of them managed to push into the Top 8—Chris Fennell.

CFB Pantheon also had a fairly high number of Day 2 match points to start, and as we'll see later, their overall win percentage was quite high. But none of them made Top 8. Their wins were more evenly distributed.

Let us remind ourselves now which teams put someone into the Top 8.

People without a team (that I know of) included Shaun McLaren and Tim Rivera. MTGMadness put two people into the Top 8: Christian Seibold and Patrick Dickmann—who are playing against one another in the quarterfinals. Lee Shi Tian represents MTGMintCard; Jacob Wilson tested with FaceToFaceGames; and Anssi Alkio belongs to Team Finland-US (or Almost Finnished). Chris Fennell, as mentioned, is with TCGPlayer.com.

MTGMadness performed the best out of these teams on Day 1, with TCGPlayer doing second best. The other teams are all somewhere in the middle.

Now to see how the teams did, combining Day 1 and Day 2. Thanks again to Chris Mascioli (@dieplstks) for these tables.

Here's a good time to point out the analysis that Wizards coverage did on teams. Their numbers are different from ours, and I should explain how.

First of all, their team rosters appear to be slightly different (e.g. I have 21 people on Team Revolution, and they have 17). Second, they averaged a team's total match points over all their members to get a sense of how each team did.

Our numbers are not an averaging of match points. Chris took every round individually, see who played in that round (excluding byes and draws), and then added up the win percentage. Thus, teams were not as penalized for not putting all their members into Day 2. We were only interested in how much teams were winning, out of the matches of Magic actually played.

Limited Results

Limited Win Percentage
MTGMadness 64.91%
Japan 62.96%
13 Angry Men 60.38%
ChannelFireball 59.55%
MTGMintCard 59.52%
CFB Pantheon 58.75%
FacetoFaceGames 55.07%
Flipsidegaming.com 54.29%
Seattle + Michael 51.72%
Elaborate Ruse 50.00%
TCGPlayer.com 48.21%
Revolution 47.92%
No Team 47.01%
Doge 45.45%
Finland-US 44.74%
Card Monster Games 35.00%

MTGMadness continued to dominate Limited since Day 1, and so did Japan. TCGPlayer had a 60% win rate in Limited yesterday but dropped the ball and landed at 48%—a rough start when their position seemed so good initially. CFB Pantheon seemed to suffer in the Limited department for this Pro Tour—they pulled themselves up from 51% yesterday though, to 58.75%.

Constructed Results

Constructed Win Percentage
CFB Pantheon 65.35%
Flipsidegaming.com 59.65%
TCGPlayer.com 59.55%
Finland-US 56.90%
MTGMadness 56.18%
Elaborate Ruse 55.21%
FacetoFaceGames 54.63%
ChannelFireball 53.52%
MTGMintCard 53.52%
Revolution 51.90%
Card Monster Games 51.61%
Seattle + Michael 51.22%
No Team 46.80%
13 Angry Men 46.25%
Doge 46.00%
Japan 40.91%

CFB Pantheon pummeled it in Constructed. I don't think they were all playing the same deck, but whatever individual choices they made paid off. Most of the teams maintained their relative position, but MTGMintCard dropped drastically from the ranking. They were all on the Blue Moon deck, but sadly it seemed to only help Lee Shi Tian.

Overall Performance

Overall Win Percentage
CFB Pantheon 62.80%
MTGMadness 59.59%
Flipsidegaming.com 57.61%
ChannelFireball 55.84%
MTGMintCard 55.75%
TCGPlayer.com 55.17%
FacetoFaceGames 54.80%
Elaborate Ruse 53.16%
Finland-US 52.08%
13 Angry Men 51.88%
Seattle + Michael 51.43%
Revolution 50.39%
Japan 49.30%
No Team 46.88%
Doge 45.78%
Card Monster Games 45.10%

So it doesn't come as a huge surprise that MTGMadness maintained its good standing here, with two of their teammates in the Top 8.

What's perhaps more surprising is that CFB Pantheon is at the top of this list with no one in the Top 8—however as I mentioned before, their wins were all more evenly distributed. Instead of shoving someone into the Top 8, they had three people make Top 16: Gaudenis Vidugiris, Kai Budde, and Owen Turtenwald. Andrew Cuneo and Tom Martell are not far behind them, at 20th and 21st. When fighting for pro points, sometimes you just want those solid finishes. I doubt any of them came away too unhappy.

I believe the two major winners at this event were MTGMadness and CFB Pantheon, at least from a team perspective. Their performance was very strong throughout the weekend, and while Pantheon missed Top 8, there's something to be said for coming away with consolation prizes in the form of pro points, cash, and a trip to Spain.

While it's hard to extrapolate, it is telling that the majority of Top 8ers did test with a named team and that almost every team outperformed the swath of people on "No Team"—of course, that could be for a huge number of reasons. But being on a team doesn't seem to hurt. If you're serious about your Magic game, I recommend finding or founding a team of your own if you haven't already.

There are arguments being made on Twitter that being on a "super team" didn't seem to help that much for this Pro Tour, but I'm not sure I agree with that. It does seem worse for a team when they can't "break the format" with a new deck, but teams still did pretty well for themselves overall. Simply, no one showed utter dominance. Modern is diverse. Perhaps the fact it seems "unbreakable" is actually a very good thing. After all, it is supposed to feel more like Legacy, where you can just bring the deck you really like and do well.

But I leave that analysis to the Modern experts.

Team Head-to-Head Looks

I'll let you guys pick apart the head-to-heads. I'm almost out of time! This is the same spreadsheet from yesterday, with Day 2 stats added. Navigate using the tabs at the bottom.

Feel free to point out any mistakes or comments on Twitter (@mulldrifting). Chris will do a more in-depth team analysis later, when the Pro Tour is all said and done.

Thanks for reading!


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