Locations
The results from last week's article.
So, let's just get this out of the way to start with.
* represents a game where mono-red mulled
^ represents a game where the "other" deck mulled.
UW control:
Mono-red on the play: 1-4
Game 1*: Mono-red never drew third land despite keeping a two land hander (one of its first two was Smoldering Spires), ending the game with Chieftain x2, Fireblast (last draw). T5 Baneslayer, cast as a prayer, wins with UW at 5.
Game 3^: UW plays a couple removal spells and that's enough to take down a mana flooded mono-red.
Game 5: Wall of Omens eats 10 damage (2 blocks on 3 power pup, 1 on 2 power pup, lavamancer activation). UW topdecks Glacial Fortress to cast Day of Judgment on turn 5, killing Lavamancer, Chieftain, and Goblin Maniac when at 9. Jace and Baneslayer Angel finish it from there.
Game 7^: UW mulls to 5 and mono-red runs it over.
Game 9: UW wins off of early Wall of Omens and the fact that mono-red has no 1-drop.
UW on the play: 1-4
Game 2: Mono-red scoops when UW has Gideon, 6 lands, and 16 life. T4 DoJ after Mono-red levelled Dragonlord on T3 was key.
Game 4: UW keeps a borderline, mana-light hand with Seachrome Coast and Tectonic Edge and stumbles on mana.
Game 6: UW goes to one to win, drawing Condemn to Condemn its own Gideon Jura for 6 life points. Ratchet Bomb on turn 2 was key to prevent mono-red from playing an additional one drop and clearing away the two existing one drops.
Game 8^: Mono-red stalls on 2 mana while UW develops into Day of Judgment, Jace TMS, Baneslayer, Gideon
Game 10: UW wins with T7 Baneslayer at 1 life, after Mono-red fails to draw burn for 2-3 turns. UW avoids cracking a Scalding Tarn on turn 6 to shuffle away bad cards.
Sideboarding:
Mono-red: -2 Grim Lavamancer, -1 Kargan Dragonlord, -3 Searing Blaze, +4 Molten Rain, +2 Koth of the Hammer
UW: -2 Jace Beleren, -2 Sun Titan, -1 Spell Pierce, -1 Deprive, +2 Flashfreeze, +2 Celestial Purge, +1 Condemn, +1 Day of Judgment
Mono-red on the play: 2-3
Game 1: UW's copious amounts of removal allows it to stabilize at 7 after mono-red is forced to Fireblast a Baneslayer, losing its two mountains.
Game 3: Early aggression (Koth, Dragonlord, Geopede, Spires, Guide) backed by burn flurry takes down a mana-flooded UW.
Game 5*^: Mono-red overextends into Day of Judgment, which nabs three guys. Double Baneslayer finishes the job.
Game 7: UW stalls until it hits 7 mana, then plays Baneslayer Angel with Flashfreeze backup. UW is at 13, so the game is over.
Game 9*: UW hits a HUGE run of lands (despite Mind Sculptor active for at least five turns with two fetchlands) and an unanswered Koth eventually takes it down.
UW on the play: 2-3
Game 2*: See game 1. This time Mono-red has double Koth, but counterspells and removal take it down.
Game 4*: UW keeps a speculative 2-lander with Jace and a bunch of two-mana spells. It doesn't draw a third land until it is too late.
Game 6*^: Gideon Jura does everything - forcing attacks and takes care of Koth. He also finishes the job.
Game 8^: Quad Wall of Omens, Double Gideon Jura, Day of Judgment, and a couple counters takes it down.
Game 10: T4 Koth takes it down, since UW has no answer after a Colonnade dies to Molten Rain.
Mono-red only brings in Molten Rain because the land destruction package is not at its best here. However, Searing Blaze is pretty terrible, so it has to come out. The same is true for Grim Lavamancer. Given the strength of Koth, the fourth Molten Rain would have likely been better as the third Koth, however, both spells force UW to keep counter mana open, so I'm not sure that the results would have been that different.
Molten Rain and Koth both got countered a lot. Of course, Koth did win one game by himself (game 10), and thus is likely marginally stronger but I don't think it affects the match-up that much. What holds true game 1 holds true for games 2 and 3 as well. UW simply overwhelms Mono-red with planeswalkers, removal, Wall of Omens, and Baneslayer Angel. These cards are simply too effective in tandem against the type of threat that mono-red is presenting.
The most interesting thing to note is that Ratchet Bomb gets much worse post-board. Because mono-red has less one drops, the card is less effective at keeping mono-red's early threats in check. It continues to suck as a mid or late-game top-deck and is essentially useless outside of the opening 8 or 9 cards. When it shows up early it can be very key, but the normal thing for UW to do is simply to deal with a bunch of creatures via Condemn/Journey/Mana Leak/Flashfreeze/Wall of Omens and then play Gideon/Baneslayer Angel and finish off the game. This game-plan worked very well game 1 and it works equally well game two. The only wrench is Koth.
Valakut:
Mono-red on the play: 3-2
Game 1*^: Valakut mulls to 5. Pyroclasm on turn 4 leaves Valakut with just enough to take the game at 3 life. As usual, Primeval Titan and Valakut do the honors.
Game 3: Goldfish as Valakut provides no resistance. Valakut plays some mana spells but doesn't draw any defense and dies before Primeval Titan can do its thing.
Game 5: T1 Goblin Guide, T2 Geopede gets there, since Valakut doesn't have Pyroclasm.
Game 7^: Valakut draws all lands/mana and loses (this seems familiar doesn't it?)
Game 9^: Mono-red floods after T2 Pyroclasm devastates the board, killing two creatures.
Valakut on the play: 1-4
Game 2: Double Pyroclasm + Battlement is too much for mono-red to overcome early, and Primeval Titan seals it up.
Game 4: T2 Khalni Heart, T3 Pyroclasm into Primeval Titan gets there.
Game 6: Pyroclasm misplay (Pyroclasming with Titan on the table instead of Pre-titan costs Valakut the game)
Game 8: Double Khalni Heart stops two Goblin Guides on turn 4 and Valakut squeezes out a victory, despite not drawing a big creature.
Game 10^: Mono-red gets Valakut to 3 after a T2 Pyroclasm but fails to topdeck a burn spell on the last turn. Avenger of Zendikar provides the kill.
Sideboarding:
Valakut: -4 Cultivate, -2 Summoning Trap, +1 Ratchet Bomb, +3 Obstinate Baloth, +2 Lightning Bolt
Mono-red: -3 Searing Blaze, -2 Grim Lavamancer, -3 Burst Lightning, -1 Kargan Dragonlord, +4 Molten Rain, +2 Stone Rain, +3 Koth of the Hammer
Mono-red on the play: 3-2
Game 1^: T1 Guide, T2 Geopede, T4 Koth with a burn flurry wins through Pyroclasm.
Game 3: T2 Explore, T3 Harrow into Explore into Pyroclasm gives Valakut the window to get Titan down, and that's all she wrote.
Game 5: Valakut has T4 Inferno Titan but dies to Double Bolt + Fireblast before the burning giant can finish the job.
Game 7*: Mono-red mulls to 5. T4 Primeval Titan beats up a Koth.
Game 9: Bunch of land destruction keeps Valakut from reaching 6 mana for a while, giving mono-red time to draw burn to finish the job after Valakut has successfully dealt with all the creatures.
Valakut on the play: 3-2
Game 2: Valakut survives long enough to get Avenger on the table, and the plants take it down.
Game 4: Obstinate Baloth sending Valakut from 12-16 allows Valakut to set up Pyroclasm into Titan while defending against mono-red's one drops.
Game 6: Koth takes it down in conjunction with Molten Rain to stop a Valakut from hurting the metal-encrusted man.
Game 8: Valakut keeps a hand with no acceleration and gets beat down before it reaches 6 mana. Pyroclasm and Bolt are not enough.
Game 10: Valakut floods despite double Baloth. It's unable to find a Titan or Avenger and an unanswered Dragonlord takes it down.
Pyroclasm was very key to the pre-board results, as Valakut won most of the games where it had Pyroclasm and lost most of the ones where it didn't. Clearly mono-red was in the match-up and it is competitive, but basically game 1 revolved around Pyroclasm.
Games two and three were more interesting, however. The land destruction suite was effective in keeping Valakut off-balance in a few situations and forced Valakut to get redundant green sources early with Evolving Wilds/Terramorphic Expanse to ensure that it could cast its green spells. I think the actual results here are a bit more in mono-red's favor than they should be because I made a couple mistakes sideboarding.
The first was sideboarding out Summoning Trap. Valakut had trouble finding finishers in a couple games, and I feel like this was directly due to the lack of Summoning Trap in the deck. I thought Baloth beatdown and the extra defense from Ratchet Bomb would supplement things but it turns out that's not true. Ratchet Bomb simply sucks if it's not in the opening hand and I would not even bother bringing it in. Awkwardly, Obstinate Baloth really doesn't do enough as an offensive threat and is frequently left on defense, despite the four life it provides. This means that it is still very necessary for Valakut to find an Avenger or Titan to finish the job, and Summoning Trap aids greatly in that department.
The second mistake was boarding out Cultivate and not Harrow. I thought Harrow would be a good foil to Mono-red's land destruction, so I left it in instead of Cultivate. It turns out that that interaction is completely irrelevant. What's more relevant is the fact that Harrow makes you sacrifice a land, thereby effectively robbing you of one mana. It is very important for Valakut to draw lands and hit 6 mana in this match-up, and Cultivate is simply better than Harrow for that since it leaves the land on the table.
UB Control:
Mono-red on the play: 4-1
Game 1: Curve-out gets there as UB stalls on 5 lands holding Grave Titan.
Game 3^: UB keeps a mediocre 6 that is light defensively (lots of Jace-like things) and gets steamrolled.
Game 5*: Mono-red mulls to 5 and has a very bad hand. UB Doom Blades the Geopede and that's all she wrote.
Game 7: UB keeps a two-lander with potential (lots of Mana Leaks, Doom Blades, and Jace Beleren) and never draws another land.
Game 9*: Mono-red curves out and UB has no removal.
UB on the play: 3-2
Game 2^: An early Doom Blade and Mana Leak allows a Jace to get on the table, bouncing a Goblin Maniac buying enough time for a Grave Titan to come down. The zombie-maker takes over from there
Game 4: UB keeps a seven that doesn't do much early besides Preordain and gets run over by 1 drops. Preordain doesn't find anything and all UB does is spread some lands then die.
Game 6: UB is unable to find an answer to a late Dragonlord.
Game 8*: UB takes it with Spreading Seas disrupting Mono-red's development and two Doom Blades relieving Mono-red's early pressure. Grave Titan finishes the job.
Game 10: UB keeps a two-land hand and stalls for 1 turn, providing Mono-red the window to put some pressure on, which is enough that the burn flurry later is lethal.
Sideboarding:
UB: -4 Spreading Seas, -2 Sea Gate Oracle, -1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor, -2 Consume the Meek, -1 Cancel, +3 Ratchet Bomb, +2 Flashfreeze, +1 Sorin Markov, +1 Duress, +2 Disfigure, +1 Doom Blade
Mono-red: -2 Grim Lavamancer, -2 Frenzied Goblin, -3 Searing Blaze, -1 Kargan Dragonlord, +4 Molten Rain, +2 Stone Rain, +2 Koth of the Hammer
Mono-red on the play: 2-3
Game 1: UB hits a huge run of lands despite lots of early defense and 3 Jaces. Mono-red finds a Dragonlord to finish the job.
Game 3*: Mono-red mulls to 5. UB eventually finds a Grave Titan to finish things off. Mono-red had a few turns to topdeck burn but only draws creatures.
Game 5: UB has some mana issues, drawing three Tectonic Edges. Mono-red punishes this by successfully Molten Raining a Drowned Catacomb on turn 5 (an earlier one got mana leaked) after T1 Goblin Guide, T2 Geopede, taking UB off of black. Jackal Pups finishes the job.
Game 7: Mono-red draws a bunch of land destruction after getting its initial hand ripped apart. The LD delays the inevitable but Sorin lands some time later and wins UB the game.
Game 9: Mono-red has no one drop and UB has triple Disfigure, Doom Blade, Triple Mana Leak, and Flashfreeze. Sorin eventually comes down and sends UB from 1 to 10, sacrificing himself for the cause. He is replaced by Jace, who keeps UB's defenses up long enough for Creeping Tar Pit to end the game.
UB on the play: 2-3
Game 2^: UB mulls to 5 and provides only token resistance.
Game 4*: Mono-red gets 1 Molten Rain Duressed and another Mana Leaked after an early Disfigure keeps some pressure off. Double Grave Titan takes it down.
Game 6^: UB keeps a mediocre 6 with only a Duress for an early play, but a good amount of card draw, a Mana Leak, and a finisher. UB draws a Disfigure but gets overwhelmed by Mono-red's Double Jackal Pup, Goblin Guide, Chieftain, and Geopede draw.
Game 8*^: Sorin into Grave Titan takes it down after Duress, Inquisition, and Disfigure provide some early resistance.
Game 10: Ratchet Bomb wipes away two early Maniacs and Disfigure takes care of the Geopede. Mono-red is then out of gas and UB eventually draws Jace and Sorin to finish the job.
Against UB, the fact that it had 8 spells that did "nothing" – Preordain and Spreading Seas – maindeck was a huge hindrance game 1. The lower density of cheap, interactive cards hurt UB as it frequently was in too big a hole by the time it could cast Jace, never mind Grave Titan to think about winning the game. The games where it won followed the same formula – early game removal/discard + countermagic backed by Jace, Grave Titan, or both.
Mono-red improves itself a bit but UB boards a whopping 10 cards. Now it has a much greater density of early game interaction and a bonus trump (Sorin, who is very good here), and thus a much stronger game. The two-way action of Sorin was strong every time I deployed him, and he essentially was Grave Titan number four, while also providing some much needed life gain (game-changing in one, and it made two more wins much more comfortable).
Grave Titan was awesome, allowing UB to frequently leave a mid-game creature or two on the table, since Grave Titan would just handle it with blockers. This meant that UB could use removal much more aggressively in the early game to remove pressure, and when it had the removal to use post-board, it was extremely effective at that.
You may question my boarding out Consume the Meek, but it really is quiet slow in the match-up. Ratchet Bomb sucks as a mid-game topdeck, but is very effective in the early game, and did a reasonable job keeping early one-drops off the table. There was a situation where I drew Ratchet Bomb and would have rather it been Consume the Meek, but there was also a situation where Bomb was vastly superior. Overall, I think the two cards are roughly equal and think leaving in the two Consumes while not bringing in two Bombs is fine. I don't think it affects the results any, as you just make tactical adjustments as the UB player.
RUG:
Mono-red on the play: 3-2
Game 1: RUG has no answer to T2 Dragonlord and dies to an angry 8/8 a few turns later.
Game 3^: Mono red has three one-drops in two turns and runs over RUG.
Game 5: T4 Lotus Cobra --> Lotus Cobra --> Oracle --> Inferno Titan killing 3 guys allows RUG to stabilize at 4 and take the game.
Game 7: T4 Lotus Cobra --> Oracle finds more mana and Inferno Titan.
Game 9: RUG dwaddles around playing spells that do nothing while a Goblin Maniac beats it in the face.
RUG on the play: 3-2
Game 2: Once again, Inferno Titan gets there. This time RUG defended itself with Mana Leak and Garruk.
Game 4: RUG has awkward mana, not finding a second blue source or a first green source early enough. Mono-red does not, and curves out, not giving RUG the time to fix its draw with Preordain and Jace.
Game 6^: RUG doesn't have early defensive spells and Mono-red runs it over.
Game 8: Mono-red is forced to Fireblast an early Lotus Cobra (T3) since it can't deal enough damage to put RUG in burn range. The tempo loss allows RUG to get to Titan a couple turns later.
Game 10^: RUG mulls to 5 and is unable to mount a sufficient defense.
Sideboarding:
RUG: -2 Oracle of Mul Daya, -1 Sea Gate Oracle, -3 Explore, -2 Spreading Seas, +4 Pyroclasm, +1 Tumble Magnet, +1 Garruk Wildspeaker, +2 Flashfreeze
Mono-red: -2 Frenzied Goblin, -2 Grim Lavamancer, -3 Searing Blaze, -2 Burst Lightning, +3 Ember Hauler, +2 Koth of the Hammer, +4 Molten Rain
Mono-red on the play: 0-5
Game 1: Mono-red has two Goblin Guides but stalls on 1 land. RUG Preordains a bunch, draws a bunch of lands, but manages Mana leaks on turns 6, and 7, along with an Inferno Titan with Leak backup on 8. The game ends when RUG leaks Fireblast while at 5, which set Mono-red back to one land.
Game 3: Mono-red keeps another one land hand and doesn't draw another land, losing to a combination of Garruk and Inferno Titan.
Game 5*^: T1 Goblin Guide, T2 Geopede gets Pyroclasmed away and T3 Lotus Cobra is protected by Flashfreeze off of a fetch. This allows T4 Garruk (also protected by countermagic), and the game is over after that.
Game 7: T2 Pyroclasm deals with the board and planeswalkers take over again.
Game 9: Pyroclasm clears 3 creatures and Garruk eventually grabs the win by making a couple beasts, first for defensive purposes, but then they turn sideways and finish the job.
RUG on the play: 0-5
Game 2: Mono-red plays Goblin Chieftain on T3, dealing a whole bunch of damage instead of offing Lotus Cobra and loses to Inferno Titan on the ensuing turn. It is one point of burn short of finishing the job.
Game 4: Pyroclasm ruins mono-red's early game tempo, allowing RUG to establish Garruk into Jace into Titan, which takes it.
Game 6*^: Mono-red mulls to 5. Pyroclasm on turn 2 clears the board for running Jaces, the second of which Mono-red is forced to Fireblast. From that point the win is academic.
Game 8*: Mono-red mulls to 5 and has no play on turn 1 and turn 2. T3 Chieftain is met by T4 Cobra and Garruk, which is protected by Mana Leak.
Game 10: Lightning Bolt into Flashfreeze buys enough time to set up planeswalkers. There's a mid-game Pyroclasm, but it's the two early defensive spells that make this win extremely comfortable.
Wow. What a surprise. RUG performed far above expectations. Game 1 went about as expected, and RUG was extremely reliant on tabling an early Inferno Titan to get the win. When this happened, it won. It could win via planeswalkers and eeking out edges, but this was a much more difficult route to take. Titan really is key pre-board.
Post-board, Titan is still key, but it is joined by Pyroclasm. I drew this card more often than normal, which skews results toward RUG, but RUG has an amazing ability to find Pyroclasm. Preordain is an all-star in this respect, and is great for finding RUG exactly what it needs to control the game, whether it be that early Pyroclasm, the T4 or 5 Titan, or simply more Planeswalkers and countermagic to keep on trading for value. These results are skewed, but not much. RUG really is a HUGE favorite post-board, completely defying my expectations. Mono-red's sideboard is basically completely irrelevant, as land destruction can be shrugged off or countered and Koth can be easily taken care of by Inferno Titan, Garruk, Lightning Bolt (buying some time for a real threat), or a counterspell. This result was astounding. On paper this still looked like mono-red's advantage, but all the separate tools RUG has come together as a well-oiled machine, and mono-red has no answers to that.
Final records of Mono-red:
Vs. UW Control: 2-8 pre-board, 4-6 post-board
Vs. Valakut: 4-6 pre-board, 6-4 post-board
Vs. UB Control: 7-3 pre-board, 4-6 post-board
Vs. RUG: 6-4 pre-board, 0-10 post-board
I have a number of comments to make about these results. The UB Control numbers are about right, but the rest of the numbers are a bit off. As you can see from the results, UW lost two games to weird mana situations, and I think realistically that skews the results toward mono-red. In reality I think the post board situation is about 70/30 in UW's favor, which is not much of a change from pre-board.
Valakut is next. This result was surprising. I knew the maindeck Pyroclasms would be good, and they were about as good as expected. What is surprising was the post-board results. I expected Valakut to at least hold its ground, if not improve, but in actuality it lost ground. I don't think the post-board match-up is favorable to mono-red, and I think I mis-boarded a bit, but Mono-red clearly improves after sideboarding.
As far as the sideboarding is concerned, boarding out Summoning Trap was clearly a mistake. I didn't have time to re-run a full set, but I ran a few games afterwards simply leaving the traps in and Valakut performed much better. I figured the card was essentially superfluous, but it really does help me find my Titans and Avengers, which I definitely need to win the match-up. I figured Baloth beatdown would supplement my existing big creatures, but that never really came together during the entire 10-game set. Baloth got burned out a lot, leaving mono-red with a creature or two to continue attacking.
I feel like if I boarded correctly the match-up is about even post-board, so overall Valakut has a slight advantage in the match-up. The reason mono-red performs so well is simple – Koth. Koth represents a huge threat to Valakut, and is basically impossible for the deck to beat. Because Valakut has so few ways to actually damage an opponent, Koth gets online almost every single time he hits the table. I wonder if it is actually correct for Valakut to bring in its own Koths to deal with opposing Koths, despite how incredibly bad the card is otherwise against mono-red. If I had more time, I would have definitely tried different sideboards with Valakut, as I think it could very well make the difference in this relatively close match-up.
The RUG results were also very surprising. I expected RUG to get stomped pre-board, but it held its own remarkably well. My tactic of holding Lotus Cobra until I could actually use the landfall trigger (because Mono-red often taps out in the first three or four turns), worked out remarkably well, winning me two games. I think game one is about 70/30 if this tactic is applied. If it is not, then mono-red has a larger advantage. Lotus Cobra is key to the match-up, forcing out quick titans, which is basically the only way RUG ever beats mono-red pre-board. Protecting your cobras is extremely important to posting a good percentage.
The post-board results, however, were absolutely astounding. It really is that bad. RUG is a HUGE favorite post-board, and that result was very surprising. The reason is simple – Pyroclasm. I did draw Pyroclasm more than average during the set, but RUG's ability to burn through cards with Preordain, Halimar Depths, and Jace allows you to find Pyroclasm with remarkable consistency, even in the early game. I think the right numbers are about 90/10 or 85/15 in RUG's favor, because Mono-red has to be afraid of Pyroclasm out of the RUG deck at all times. The fact that RUG has the back-end of Inferno Titan helps also.
Post-board the role of Cobra shifts a lot. I often used it as a blocker or as burn bait, because Mono-red still can't let a Cobra live under most circumstances (the threat of a Titan following it up really is that strong). This means that you can bait burn spells with it and use it to defend your planeswalkers. Garruk is also annoying for Mono-red because it provides blockers while threatening a Titan on the ensuing turns as well.
Inferno Titan really is the complete and utter nuts in this match-up. Mono-red basically cannot beat the card, and the back-end of Titan is what keeps RUG's early game so good. Mono-red has to consistently weigh the possibility of going all-in against the possibility that doing something like burning a cobra or blowing up a land will keep RUG off of Titan long enough to win the game. This is a very difficult balance to walk. I think this is one of the most interesting match-ups, and will swing highly based on play style, player skill, and the ability of one player to identify how the other is playing, although RUG definitely holds a sizeable advantage under any condition.
RUG essentially has two huge trump cards – Pyroclasm and Inferno Titan – and supports them extremely well. The blue cards find the trumps, the green cards power them out. The fact that Jace and Garruk can affect the board is sort of icing on the cake. As a whole, the two-pronged attack of Pyroclasm and Inferno Titan is mildly reminiscent of the way Faeries would put decks in awkward situations where they could beat one card and would lose to another. It's a sort of "pick your poison" type deal, and success frequently follows those.
Using adjusted numbers, these are the final match-up tallies:
UW Control: 20/80 pre-board, 30/70 post-board.
Valakut: 40/60 pre-board, 50/50 post-board
UB Control: 70/30 pre-board, 40/60 post-board
RUG: 70/30 pre-board, 10/90 post-board
This translates into match-win percentages as follows:
UW Control: 17.4%
Valakut: 45%
UB Control: 49.6%
RUG: 13.6%
So, clearly my experimental mono-red is a bad choice for this metagame. You wouldn't select a rogue deck whose best match-up against the major archetypes was a coin flip, and that is exactly what mono-red is. The fact that it has such abysmal RUG and UW match-ups only goes to further demonstrate how bad a choice it is.
I want to talk a little bit about the design of the experiment, however, because we have a very odd metagame. I designed experimental mono-red for what I perceive as a "generalized metagame." What that means is a metagame that has various strategies represented, and is not overly dominated by a single strategy or archetype. In recent history (post Invasion) I feel that most meta-games have been generalized. I feel like my view of the "generalized metagame" failed only in a small number of instances, listed below:
Major failure: Odyssey era Psychatog, and, potentially, our modern Jace-metagame (although the jury is still out on this one).
Minor failure: Skullclamp Affinity
Every other metagame I feel, even if it has been dominated by a single deck, has been appropriately "general."
Here is what I view as the "generalized metagame" – a metagame that has each of four categories of decks represented, with potentially a fifth on the side.
Category A: Fast Beatdown or Mid-range Beatdown. Examples – Mono-red, Vengevine Naya
Category B: Spell-based control (usually blue). Examples – 5cc, UW, UB.
Category C: Mid-range control. Examples – Jund, certain builds of BW Tokens.
Category D: Aggro-control or Control-aggro. Examples – Faeries, Doran.
Category E: Combo or Semi-Combo. Examples – Pyromancer Ascension, Valakut.
There is obviously a certain amount of overlap between categories. Categories A, C, and D frequently have archetypes that overlap them and move into one category or another based more on specific build and card selection than actual archetype. For example, BW Tokens could easily be a more controlling version like Jund or a very aggressive version like LSV's initial list, which would almost be a Category D deck.
Category E is the strangest category. My term of "semi-combo" needs explanation. What I mean by that is decks that still need to sequence their spells, but instead of sequencing specific cards (combo), they have redundant pieces that they need to draw in a specific order to set up a situation where they are winning around a specific interaction or card.
Let's take Valakut as an example. Valakut is designed to play mana acceleration spells into big creatures, setting up a situation where it wins the game based upon one of two combinations of cards – Avenger of Zendikar plus fetchlands/bonus land drops, or Primeval Titan + Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle. It has a specific end-game that it is playing for and it sequences a specific type of card to get there.
Eldrazi Ramp is an example of a semi-combo deck that wins via a single card instead of a combination of cards – in many cases Ulamog or Emrakul. Like Valakut, it also sequences land search spells to get there, but because the "combo" is more compact, it can afford to run a few more defensive spells and utility cards (Obstinate Baloth, for example) or it can simply dedicate more slots to redundant pieces of the "combo" like Summoning Trap.
Balanced metagames have decks from each of the first four categories for sure, and usually one from the fifth category as well represented among the "commonly played or commonly successful" archetypes. Having both criteria is important. The decks that you will see often and the decks that have a lot of success are both important to keep track of. Often there is overlap, but when the best deck is expensive, often there will be a cheaper alternative that still has a good level of success (UG Madness is the most glaring example, but there have been others). These "popular" decks will show up at top tables often simply by force of numbers, and will take down events as well, but their penetration can be very low. Still, they are important to track.
We have a very strange metagame right now where basically the relevant decks are all in Category B or E. The other three categories are basically not represented. Sure, some people will play decks like Vampires, and the occasional Vengevine Bant or RUG aggro deck shows up, but in general those decks make up a small percentage of the metagame and are not successful because the metagame is hostile to them.
So I designed Experimental Mono-red for this "generalized metagame." The creature suite is fairly self-evident, built around the principle of the mana-curve, but the burn suite is where I took the metagame into consideration. Mono-red has only ever had two good burn spells for removing larger blockers and going to the face – Flame Javelin and Fireblast. Fireblast is the superior card and running both is impossible, so I chose to run it.
Still, since Fireblast is more of a finisher, I needed a card to remove blockers. Searing Blaze is pretty much next on the list in terms of power level, so it got stuffed in. Against the generalized metagame it is very strong, since it has good play against decks from Categories A, C, and D (and sometimes E). Against this metagame, it was a liability (evidenced by the fact that it was always boarded out.
But still, the results speak for themselves. Despite the overall strength of the red deck (and I am sure it would perform very well to amazing against the lower tier decks – Boros, Vampires, Eldrazi Elves, etc.) it really didn't put much of a dent in the top decks, which is what you would be looking for in a rogue selection. The format is already pre-prepared for it.
This hostility comes from two sources – efficient mid-range creatures and planeswalkers. Mono-red (and other fast beatdown) has always had to contend with strong defensive spells – Day of Judgment, Doom Blade, Pyroclasm, Lightning Bolt, and Condemn/Journey are nothing new. Historically aggro decks have overcome these defensive spells one of two ways:
- Drawing Burn
- A Stage 2 threat that can lock up a game – Grim Lavamancer, Cursed Scroll, Figure of Destiny.
Drawing Burn in the window where the opposing deck has "stabilized" but before they actually deploy a threat to win the game is one of the primary ways aggro decks got around the fact that defensive spells outclassed their offensive threats. The problem is, the window to do this is no longer large enough.
Cards like Baneslayer Angel, Inferno Titan, and Grave Titan are now what control decks use as "offense threats" because that's what they need against the other control and mid-range decks. The problem is that these decks provide essentially no window for the aggro deck once they come down. Baneslayer Angel is an insane two-way threat, being basically an impenetrable blocker and a lifelinking attacker that will pull the control player out of burn range. Inferno Titan clears the board, keeps it clear, and wins the game in two swings. Grave Titan clutters the board with chump blockers and also will end the game in two to three swings as well.
On their own, these threats would represent a problem, but they would not represent the death of aggro. After all, they still cost 5 to 6 mana to deploy, and with a good combination of tempo spells like land destruction and the proper application of other tools and tactics, the aggro deck could probably handle them. The issue is when they are combined with the other prong of the problem – Planeswalkers.
The best planeswalkers cost 4. We've long established this. However, more expensive planeswalkers are also playable. The real issue with planeswalkers is their ability to extended the game and interact with the board profitably. Aggro decks have to devote resources to defeating the consistent advantages generated by these permanents (often starting on turn 4). For Jace, they have to attack it and spend mana replaying the threat that was bounced. For Garruk they have to kill the beast. For Gideon and Sorin, well, there are few good answers.
These extra resources at a critical juncture in the game often are the difference between victory and defeat. The resources of an aggro deck are generally stretched very thin, and stretching them further by forcing them to interact with planeswalkers usually pushes them past the Breaking Point. This is why Koth is so good for the red deck. It provides the same type of advantage other decks are enjoying via their planeswalkers, while providing mono-red with that trump card in Stage 2. Essentially, it allows mono-red to devote the rest of its resources where it really wants to – attacking the opponent directly, and not dealing with his defenses.
Even so, the reactive deck is usually at an advantage, because all it has to do is survive, all it has to do is not lose. Not losing is not a particularly difficult task to accomplish once you set it as your goal, and the ability of cards like Jace and Garruk to extend the game to allow later-game trumps to take over is generally too much for the red deck.
This bears itself out in the match notes I took. If you go up and check, you will note that the key cards are often these mid-range permanents that the aggro deck simply cannot overcome after devoting the necessary resources to punching through the wall of spells that opponents put up.
These mid-range permanents represent the true problem of power creep. By placing them where they are, Wizards is putting extraordinary stress on Stage 1 strategies, and thus on metagames as a whole. When combined with the normal caliber defensive spells, these mid-range threats create a defensive wall that essentially cannot be breached by traditional style aggro decks, and I believe this will cause problems for future metagames, as the lack of genuine time pressure on deck design will inbred metagames based on specific trump cards and answers to those trumps.
