After a one expansion hiatus Three Up and Three Down makes a triumphant return with Magic 2010.  The basic premise, in case you missed previous posts, is not only predicting cards duelists will play but also giving a good idea as to which cards they will replace.  Pulling Path to Exile from a booster is only half the challenge.  Including the spot remover in a deck always means something else must go.  Each new card represents a new dilemma.  Some of these choices are harder than others.  The list below contains three cards we will want to play and the former residents of their deck slots.

Before we begin the list in earnest, the following were omitted as they are just a bit too obvious.  Lightning Bolt and Honor of the Pure give equal value for less mana than Incinerate and Glorious Anthem respectively.  In some cases, Doom Blade over Terror and Baneslayer Angel over Serra Angel, new cards cost exactly the same and do more.  A quick glance would reveal a sizable gap in effectiveness any novice would notice.  For the sake of your time we will consider these cards 'auto-upgrades'.  By contrast the following are decisions of a more discerning nature:

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1. Time Warp over Time Stop - It may seem strange to begin with a replacement card that has been in Magic since 1997.  Originally a Tempest card Time Warp has not seen re-print in 12 years.  Like another card on this list WotC decided it was about time for the return of a legend.  And we should be glad it is back.  Time Stop has not seen an abundance of competitive play, but has a cult following in casual formats.  Why?  Because until now it was the cheapest way to take an extra turn.  Sure Time Stop was also played as a Counterspell, but the real purpose was taking two turns without the nuisance of your opponent getting one.  Well that process has been made simpler, and more importantly cheaper.  Turns five and six are arguably the most important in MTG.  Here is a convenient way to take them together.  If you feel turn four is more important than turn six Noble Hierarch is there to assist you with an extra blue mana.

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2. Ball Lightning over Boggart Ram-Gang - The Ram-Gang is a staple in almost any deck looking to beat down the opposition as quickly as possible.  Three mana nets you a 3/3 plus an ability that makes it very unsavory to block.  Red-green aggro decks have been using Llanowar Elves mana acceleration and Bloodbraid Elf cascading to land the Gang as quickly and easily as possible.  Admittedly the turn two Ball Lightning isn't happening yet, but the six damage makes up for this drawback.  Especially when played for free off cascade abilities.  Turn one Noble Hierarch, turn two Woolly Thoctar, turn three Bloodbraid Elf into Ball Lightning and attack for 14.  That leaves six damage left to be dealt on turn four.  A serendipitous number considering Ball Lightning's six power.  As long as the mana fixing in Standard remains so dynamic, any Jund or Naya aggro build deserves a Ball Lightning upgrade.

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3. Silence over Cryptic Command - The most abstract selection of an upgrade and what is replaces.  There is a method to the madness.  In theory Cryptic Command is everything a blue wizard could want: counter, bounce and card-draw.  In practice CC is used to clear a path on offense or hold the line on defense.  Those uses are precisely why Silence was created.  The card itself is a bit of a paradox, a proactive reactionary spell.  It doesn't counter or bounce anything that is already in play like its blue predecessor, but Silence allows the same piece-of-mind when held in hand.  The security of knowing that this turn will not surprise you, or that turn will go exactly as planned.  Silence is the perfect offensive spell masquerading as a defensive one.  The same charade Cryptic Command  has played since Lorwyn's release in 2007.  How is Silence an upgrade?  The answer is as simple as mana cost.  Where CC gives more dynamic results, the tiny mana commitment of Silence allows you to play everything offensively you would normally.   Defensively, Silencing your foe on turn four and/or turn five allows a board advantage the blue command cannot match.

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Not all cards in Magic 2010 better their contemporaries.  Many, while useful, struggle to find a deck slot.  There are some examples of solid cards that just aren't good enough to replace peers include.  Duress is a solid discard option that allows a stunning level of control for one mana, however a Thoughtseize it is not.  Taking two damage is well worth the opportunity to snag a Great Sable Stag or Broodmate Dragon early. Siege Gang Commander is another example.  With the M10 rules changes and the closing window of a Reveillark combo SGC has seen better days.  That doesn't mean it will be usurped by Captain of the Watch just yet.  SGC still offers unbeatable creature production for the price, and along with Goblin Chieftain produces nine points of combat damage the turn it is played.  CotW is a great token producer, but at six mana is a little cost-heavy and lacks the second combo piece to be truly effective in competition.  Perhaps Zendikar will offer something that allows CotW to be abused, but until then SGC stays in our decks.  Until then, don't be afraid to toss out an old favorite when attempting to find that perfect build.  Something better may have just arrived.

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Struggling to find the perfect replacement for cards like Kitchen Finks that won't be standard legal come October?  Or looking for the best way to use a cool find like Awakener Druid?  As always the Gathering Magic forums are here to help.  Simply post your quandry here and let the MTG think-tank do its thing.

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