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Trade Tables #3 — Post-Ban Standard and Modern/Overextended

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We all knew it would happen, but I don’t think we all expected the extent of the changes.

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know about the banning of Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor in Standard starting on July 1. While I hope most of you didn’t have many of these lying around in binders or decks when the announcement happened, I know some of you did. So, for those of you who still owned these guys, we need to know what to do (beyond using them to start a funeral pyre for the angry DCI gods).

It is a safe bet to assume that Jace is not down for the count, and will rise back up to his former glory as a sought-after possession. We know this because he is still a powerhouse in every format in which he is legal, and when Extended (or Modern or Overextended) rolls around again as a PTQ format, his stock will rise and could easily hit $75 once again. Also, his popularity in the Eternal formats solidifies him as a card that will always be worth owning and trading for. So, in summation, the sky is not falling, and you should be seeking out people who believe that it is.

Standard After the Ban

Now that we have that taken care of, we need to talk about what Standard is going to look like after the banning goes into effect. I believe that people will immediately gravitate back to Primeval Titan strategies, Vampires, Splinter Twin variants, and some sort of U/x control.

With that information, you can begin accumulating cards for those decks. The prime candidates for the metagame immediately following the banning will be:

And with the absence of Jace, we will have a place in the format for creatures that cost 4 or more and don’t immediately affect the board like Hero of Bladehold, Phyrexian Obliterator, Abyssal Persecutor, Consecrated Sphinx, and Kuldotha Forgemaster to take a firm stance within the metagame. People have dusted off their brewing hats and are ready to tackle this new format, which is great for people with the inventory to supply a much more diverse environment.

With all this talk about Jace, we can’t forget to talk about his partner in crime, Stoneforge Mystic. The floor really fell out on the price of her after the banning, which is something I am sure we all knew would happen, but I did not anticipate it being as drastic, so soon. As far as long-term value of Stoneforge goes, I don’t believe that she will ever return to the land of twenty-dollar bills, but she may make a trip to see Mr. Hamilton again with time. A good comparison card would be Knight of the Reliquary. They are both utility cards in Eternal formats, and therefore retain value as long as their abilities remain unique.

Modern/Overextended

Right now, we have a unique phenomenon going on in Magic finance, which is the heavy speculation on a format that will replace Extended as a PTQ format. Wizards has not announced that it will be anything more than a format that was played once for the Community Cup that occurred earlier this month, and because of that, I did not go out and start finding format staples.

Before we move forward, I should make something clear: I do not speculate on the value of cards, I merely grind value out of cards that already hold value. There is no reason to speculate on something that we cannot guarantee makes money when we already have a way to continue to grind out small incremental values. Sure, the paydays are bigger when you hit with a speculation, but you will miss a lot more often than you hit (and if that is not the case for you personally, please e-mail me, because we need to talk about some, um, investments).

Now that my stance is clear on that, let’s talk about why I’m now attempting to trade for Ravnica shock lands (RSLs) and why you should, too. The mere fact that there are enough people speculating on this format becoming something more than a one-shot deal has driven up the price of RSLs, so much so that retailers have taken notice and upped their buy prices accordingly.

Now, some people who have speculated heavily on RSLs may be able to make it rain with their newly acquired cash, but that is no reason for us who prefer to not gamble on card prices to despair. Instead, we should take this opportunity to find some good deals on RSLs and add them to our trade binders as we now (at least in the immediate short term) have a new weapon to grind value.

Now that we know RSLs will move once we acquire them, we can pick them up without fear. This does not mean I would start hoarding them or stockpiling them, waiting for the next big price jump. Instead, I would try to flip them as quickly as possible, or our RSLs will end up going the way of Stoneforge Mystic if they announce that what is now Extended is returning for another year.

We have covered that I do not speculate on cards, but if I were someone who did, I would start looking at popular archetypes in this proposed format and begin picking up staples and cards that appear in several archetypes. There was a series of articles written about this when we were ManaNation, and Gavin Verhey has picked up that torch and begun writing an article series about this format and the MTGO tournaments he is running to help shine a spotlight on this seemingly very exciting format. These articles are filled with deck lists, which is a good place for a speculator to start.

Origins

This weekend, I was able to live out something that I think every serious grinder wants to end up doing, and that is that I got to run a booth for buying and selling Magic cards at Origins in Columbus, Ohio. Now, Origins has a special place in my heart, as it was the first convention I was able to attend and my first real exposure to Magic as something that was bigger than my local store.

This idea was the brainchild of Jonathon Medina, Matt Kranstuber, and me, and once it was proposed, it basically became a force that could not be stopped. We are all just lovers of the game, and more specifically lovers of Magic finance.

I am not telling you all this to brag or promote what we are doing; instead, I am telling you this as a story of what can happen if you want something enough. I have wanted to own an entity that can buy and sell Magic cards profitably, and after this weekend, I am convinced that this is something that not only can happen, but will happen thanks to the drive and motivation of Jonathon and Matt.

So, in closing, to all those grinders out there who want to take that next step, instead of just thinking about it, find out what that first step is and start working toward it; it’s not as far away as you may think.

Happy grinding!

JR Wade

JohnRobertWade at gmail dot com

@THEJRRR on Twitter

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