In the last couple of weeks I've had lessons involving Sealed and how to analyze your card choices. Both of these lessons were designed so that we begin to think of cards by their Expected Turn of Play (ETP). We also looked at how some cards may have a strong effect versus their ETP but that was because of some other costs beyond mana requirements. Please review these lessons before reading further.

Today I'll begin evaluating Zendikar specifically by looking at its card types. In sealed the most important card type is creatures. While in Constructed it's possible to see decks that win by noncreature means because of some cool combo or relentless burn to the dome in Sealed it just isn't plausible. You may occasionally see someone cast Lightning Bolt targeting a players last 3 Life but for the most part it's a creature blasting through the red zone that wins the game.

When looking at creatures we need to look at what benefit we get from the card versus its ETP. First we'll look at the "Vanilla" creatures. Vanilla is how we name creatures that have no special abilities. Vanillas in the game of Magic are becoming fewer and fewer. In fact there are only 5 Vanilla creatures in the whole Zendikar set. From my viewpoint I look to the following formula when evaluating vanilla creatures. Power plus toughness divided by 2 needs to be equal to or greater than its ETP. So let's see how our vanillas line up.

Stonework Puma is the easiest on ETP since it has no color requirements so if I have 3 land I can play it no matter what my deck is. That's a good benefit but using the formula we only get 2 benefit from ETP of 3. Pillarfield Ox and Vastwood Gorger also don't make the cut very often since the ox gives us 3 benefit to 4 ETP and Gorger yield 5.5 to an ETP of 6. However it is important to notice that both creatures toughness is high enough to survive multiple removal spells and multiple power levels from creatures in Zendikar. That means they will survive more turns that other creatures so that may make them playable in a pinch. Shatterskull Giant is probably the least playable of the Vanillas since his double red pushes his ETP up to 4.5 and only yields 3.5 benefit from his Power and Toughness. Lastly, Kraken Hatchling is the only card that gives more benefit than ETP cost. The formula yields 2 while you can expect to play it as early as turn 1. Sure it isn't going to win a game for you but it goes a long way in stopping you from losing.

The rest of the numerous creatures in Zendikar must be evaluated in a more complex manner. Basically we need to see if there additional text is worth the extra ETP cost involved or the extra benefits are worth the drawback that's in their text. I'm going to hit a few examples and my scale maybe different than yours in some areas but the examples should provide you with the ground work for your own conclusions.

First let's look at creatures with classic abilities. Basically each ability has a justifiable ETP costs. When can figure each cost by researching the archives of Magic and comparing the cost increase for an ability. Be careful how far back you go for your values. The infamous "power creep" has made many abilities cheaper than they used to be.

One of the most classic abilities is Flying. It's become such a regular thing that in today's Standard it's almost impossible to find a card that Flies but does nothing else. The reason we want no other effects is so we can get a pure ETP evaluation of the card. Wind Drake is the best example. It yields 2 benefit in our P/T formula but has an ETP of 3. Therefore we can think that Flying cost 1 ETP. In Zendikar we have no pure flyers but Heartstabber Mosquito and Kor Aeronaut come close since their Kicker is the added ability and we don't have to pay that cost. Using flying as a plus 1 to ETP Kor Aeronaut comes out ahead of normal and therefore a good pick. P/T formula yields 2 plus 1 for flying means an ETP of 3 would be fine while the double White for Kor Aeronauts puts it's ETP of 2.5ish depending on how white our mana base is. While the Mosquito had an ETP of 1 to high for its flying, power and toughness the kicker is a much stronger than the Aeronauts so it's still playable if you're planning on kicking it.

Another classic of course is Trample. Once again you really have to dig through the box of cards to find a Standard format plain Trampler. Stampeding Rhino fits the bill nicely showing that Trample adds 1 to the Expected Turn of Play. Curious though is Rhox Charger. This is one of many cards that basically says Exalted is a free mechanic. In Zendikar we have only two creatures that have full time trample. One is Mythic and the other rare so they aren't likely to land in your card pool but if they do I would seriously consider them in your list. Rampaging Baloths has an ETP of 6 (note: 6 mana is high enough the double Green doesn't affect ETP) while P/T benefit of 6 as well. The Trample is basically free as is the Landfall which by the way only produces a 4/4 for free. Last I checked that was pretty playable. The other is Terra Stomper. Its ETP is a bit harder to figure. I would place it at 6 as well but it also gives us 8 in the P/T Benefit formula. That's pretty strong but we also get Trample and it can't be countered on top of that. Let me double check my records but that seems like a bomb by the numbers.

We could go through all of the basic mechanics and come up with their cost in terms of ETP. In fact now that I think of it lets make that the homework today. Post in the comments the ETP cost of any other mechanic and post the card that justifies your opinion. That way we can all gain knowledge from each other.

The real dilemma is evaluating new mechanics in a new expansion. In Zendikar we have Kicker, Landfall, and Allyship (I made that one up).

Kicker of course doesn't directly affect ETP since we have to add cost to make the kicker. It's really simple to just think about straight ETP for the creature and then see if the kicker is worth the extra mana cost just as if we had two spells in one. Of course the overall advantage of basically having two options in every card makes kicker something we should always consider. But our conversation right now doesn't really look at that yet. The only real question is whether it is worth keeping a sub par creature for the potential of being able to kick it when needed. Torch Slinger for example has an ETP that is a turn late for the P/T formula. Its kicker is also relatively blah. As burn goes 2 damage to just creatures isn't worth 2 mana. Put them together and you still haven't made up for the cost. While if your opponent happens to play some nonbasic land Goblin Ruinblaster would be usable. The Creature by itself is easily 1.5 turns too slow but if you get a chance to kick it then it's justifiable. Its land destruction for four which is normal and you get a 2/1 stick as a bonus. If Wizards hadn't said nonbasic this card would be sick but as it is I would keep it handy but not Main deck.

Landfall is quite perplexing since each some many different effects happen from different cards. For our purposes her we are going to say that we will be able to trigger landfall once. It may be that each landfall will make us play it a turn later so we can play the creature and then play our land for the turn. This would make the ETP go up one but there would also be times that our opponent won't find removal in time and we would get multiple land drops with the creature in play. This variability is too unpredictable so we are going to say just 1 landfall each.

The easiest to evaluate Landfalls are the creatures that get a temporary boost in Power and Toughness until end of turn. These effects are temporary and as such they seem to be cheapest. Steppe Lynx is only a .5 for ETP of 1 but with a land fall he becomes 2.5 for the same ETP. Effectively saying that the Landfall bonus cost us .5 and its potential is a gain of 1.5 in the short term. While Windrider Eel cost is a full one over expected ETP(2 from P/T and 1 for Flying) and only gives a short term plus one for the Landfall. Plated Geopede and Territorial Baloth do the same. The Geopede does have First Strike as an additional bonus so depending on the value of First Strike it is better. (Maybe you could be the first to figure out First Strike for the Homework.) The worst temp pumper is Hagra Crocodile. Not only does landfall apparently cost us two turns but we also get the can't block drawback. And for a bonus that lets us break even at best. Shame on anyone playing that card. Even Hedron Scrambler is better than that. The rest of the Landfalls fall into rarity slots. The uncommon almost seem like free effects while the rare's and Mythic seem to give us cheaper ETP for extra bonus's. All we really need to do is keep them in play long enough.

If the Landfall was varied then the Allyship is just a wishy washy. In the common slot we have additional ETP cost ranging from free up to 1.5 turn delay. The free is obviously the best. Oran-Rief Survivalist, Tuktuk Grunts, and Umara Raptor are all cards that with the +1/+1 counter come out the same as they would to just cast the same size creature and have to potential to see other allies to make the stronger. I consider these all to be playable on their own and the Allyship is a bonus. One the other end Jogara Bard is unplayable. 2.5 for an ETP of 4 and an effect that is only useful IF the Bard isn't the first to the "party." In the uncommon Allies we find almost no playables compared to cost. The worst is Seascape Aerialist where we extend our ETP by 2.5 just to make other Allies (that we probably don't have) fly. Hagra Diabolist adds the same to our ETP value but at least he makes our opponent lose life. Kazandu Blademaster on the other hand is quite a package. For an ETP of 3 we get a 2/2 with First Strike and Vigilance. That on its own is worth the price of admission. Add a couple of other Allies in there and we have some real muscle. Most of the rares are playable if you get one. The big exception is Kabira Evangel. It only has an additional cost of .5 but Protection until end of turn and non-instant speed is pretty lame. If it had Flash then it would be very useful but it doesn't so it's relegated to nearly unplayable.

Hope this has given you some food for thought in your upcoming Sealed tournaments. I see we are almost out of time. The bell just seems to get faster and faster. I do want to say quick congratulations to the Football team on their District Championship. Hope you make it to States!