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Market Watch - Predicting Value

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LeafLorwyn and Morningtide are not long for this world.  In a few short months they, along with 10th edition, will be rotated out of standard in favor of the recently announced Zendikar block.   As new sets are released, some existing cards lose value while others tend to become even more valuable.  Once this evolution happens, there will be a good number of elite level cards we'll need to swap deck sleeves.  Tournament staples like Mutavault, Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom, and Chameleon Colossus will find a new home in our casual game rooms.  But what will replace these at the top of the MTG food chain?  As sure as there was a new Tarmogoyf there will be tournament subs for these cards.  Some will be obvious, and others may be much more surprising.  Let's take a look at what should be the next wave of super-valuable must haves. (Ed note: Planeswalkers were left out due to their great value at release so you won't see them here.  They are also more likely to be valued as a collector's item than a playable card.)

[caption id="attachment_1445" align="alignright" width="193" caption="start saving your pennies"]start saving your pennies[/caption]

The clearest choice to explode in value the next few months is the poor-man's Reflecting Pool, Conflux's Exotic Orchard.  While not in uber-demand yet, there are reasons this card will continue to rise in value.  Many have to do with the decline in value of it's cousin from Shadowmoor.  First of all, the Vivid lands will be out of rotation meaning RP will be losing it's best combo.  Second, with such a focus on multi-colored cards your opponent will likely be playing at least one of your main colors.  Third, with it's more recent release Exotic Orchard has a much longer shelf-life (assuming WotC does not include RP in MTG 2010, which is unlikely).  Finally, why not play both?  Mutavault will be out, and Alara forces more that just a splash of third colors.  It all adds up to high demand and even higher value. (Ed. note: RP will no longer be standard legal, therefore this paragraph is incorrect.  However the value  of EO will still increase.)

[caption id="attachment_1447" align="alignleft" width="192" caption="a great card in any format"]a great card in any format[/caption]

The next prediction has less to do with Standard Tournament play than with Knight of the Reliquary's general usefulness. (Ed note: some cards are valuable for their prowess in every format, not simply standard.  This is one of those cards.)  With such a dynamic ability this could be MTG's next $50 card.   In fact the only thing stopping that from already being the case is the mana cost.  Three mana may not seem like much, but with the precedent set for top-of-the-line one and two drops the drawback is magnified.  However in combination with Life from the Loam, Ravnica's dual lands, Crucible of Worlds and dredge cards (all of which we could see variations of in M10), KotR is already a powerhouse.  Not only that, but I'm sure there is viscous combo deck out there we haven't yet seen.  This more relevant version of the Master Transmuter will soon be one of Conflux's most wanted.

Hell's Thunder is a controversial pick to have anything but middling value.  The fading of Red Deck Wins clones in Standard has already cut deeply into the value of Demigod of Revenge.  It seems clear that a mono-themed burn deck won't be competitive for a while.  That being said, here is my case for Hell's Thunder.  The eight-damage/one card slot ratio is nearly peerless.  Without Seething Song the low mana cost makes HT a red zone attacker well before any Demigod or Thunderblust could be.  In addition, the unearth ability provides a sort of sneak attack and a great option after running out of burn.  It was a tough choice between this card and Banefire, but the efficiency here is hard to top.    This card might not pay for your kid's college tuition but the price is sure to rise.

[caption id="attachment_1449" align="alignright" width="200" caption="investing in Alara pays"]investing in Alara pays[/caption]

There are some of the other candidates for increasing value over the few months.  Knight of the White Orchid replaces the offense of Knight of the Meadowgrain while granting us a one-shot Land TaxApocalypse Hydra fills any void left by Siege Gang Commander, and provides a nasty creature.  Currently a poor-man's Reveillark, Ranger of Eos will find itself in much higher demand as we approach 2010.  The aforementioned Transmuter is a smart investment for any collector, not to mention very playable.  So if you pull any of these cards from a pack put them in sleeves and keep them safe, because someday soon they'll be worth it.

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