Grand Prix: Atlantic City and StarCityGames Open: San Diego took place last weekend, providing fresh-to-market results and data from two major Standard tournaments for our consumption. In today’s article, I’ll review the top sixteen results of SCG Open: San Diego, discuss some of the decks and cards played there, and update you on the state of the Standard metagame based on the top decks from both tournaments. I’ll also take a look back at Return to Ravnica preorder prices and provide some analysis “By the Numbers”. Finally, I’ve added a new feature “What Do You Think?” in which I ask you to predict the Gatecrash cards that will impact Standard. It’s an action-packed column, so let’s get to it!

SCG: San Diego – The Results

Here are the top sixteen decks from SCG Open: San Diego. I determined the average mana cost of the main deck and prices in dollars and Magic Online tickets by importing each decklist into the Decked Builder app. Dollars are from CoolStuffInc.com, and tickets are from MTGOTraders.com. The graphs display the strategies, colors, and most played archetypes of the Top 16.

Place	Deck	Colors	Avg Mana	Cost ($)	Cost (Tix)
1	Human Reanimator		3.14	$429	218
2	Naya Midrange		3.31	$716	522
3	Jund Staticaster		2.74	$698	371
4	B/R Zombies		2.37	$455	286
5	R/G Aggro		2.69	$312	209
6	R/W/U Thragtusk		2.89	$796	476
7	W/U Flash		2.22	$485	317
8	Esper Control		3.21	$482	258
9	Human Reanimator		3.19	$470	292
10	B/R Dragon Zombies		2.47	$564	364
11	B/G Zombies		1.84	$435	186
12	B/R Dragon Zombies		2.47	$523	303
13	B/R Dragon Zombies		2.28	$524	363
14	Junk Midrange		3.31	$439	211
15	B/R Aggro		2.22	$449	269
16	G/W Humans		2	$344	126
	Average:		2.6	$508	298

Deck Check: The Top 16 Rundown

The Top 16 at San Diego is fairly diverse in terms of deck archetypes—only B/R Dragon Zombies and Human Reanimator had more than one representative. Looking at it from a strategy perspective, it is an almost even split between aggro and midrange decks, and the line is often blurry between the two.

Two Human Reanimator decks made the Top 16. One emerged victorious (decklist below), and the other finished in ninth place. This archetype first found Standard tournament success when Yuuji Okita won Grand Prix: Nagoya with it. The deck stalls an opponent by chumping with its host of Humans, self-mills when not under pressure, and then either hard-casts or uses Unburial Rites to play Angel of Glory's Rise and return a ton of cards from the Human-infested graveyard to the battlefield to overwhelm the opponent. Check out more on the deck in this primer.

Let’s take a look at a couple decklists.

First Place

"Human Reanimator by Joe Lossett (First Place at SCG Open: San Diego, Standard)"

• Creatures (17)
• 1 Goldnight Commander
• 4 Angel of Glory's Rise
• 4 Huntmaster of the Fells
• 4 Izzet Staticaster
• 4 Nightshade Peddler

• Spells (20)
• 4 Grisly Salvage
• 4 Faithless Looting
• 4 Farseek
• 4 Mulch
• 4 Unburial Rites

• Lands (23)
• 1 Clifftop Retreat
• 1 Dragonskull Summit
• 1 Steam Vents
• 1 Sunpetal Grove
• 2 Blood Crypt
• 2 Overgrown Tomb
• 3 Woodland Cemetery
• 4 Cavern of Souls
• 4 Rootbound Crag
• 4 Temple Garden

• Sideboard (15)
• 1 Pillar of Flame
• 2 Cathedral Sanctifier
• 3 Zealous Conscripts
• 3 Geist-Honored Monk
• 3 Purify the Grave
• 3 Rolling Temblor

Buy This Deck

The Human Reanimator decks at SCG Open: San Diego have almost identical main decks. Both went with Grisly Salvage over Okita’s choice of Chronic Flooding for self-mill and deck filtering and included Farseek to fix their mana.

Second Place

"Naya Midrange by Jason Reed (Second Place at SCG Open: San Diego, Standard)"

• Creatures (24)
• 2 Loxodon Smiter
• 3 Angel of Serenity
• 3 Borderland Ranger
• 4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
• 4 Huntmaster of the Fells
• 4 Restoration Angel
• 4 Thragtusk

• Planeswalkers (2)
• 2 Garruk, Primal Hunter

• Spells (10)
• 3 Selesnya Charm
• 3 Bonfire of the Damned
• 4 Farseek

• Lands (24)
• 1 Mountain
• 2 Plains
• 3 Forest
• 2 Kessig Wolf Run
• 4 Cavern of Souls
• 4 Rootbound Crag
• 4 Sunpetal Grove
• 4 Temple Garden

• Sideboard (15)
• 3 Rest in Peace
• 2 Loxodon Smiter
• 1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
• 1 Bonfire of the Damned
• 2 Zealous Conscripts
• 2 Triumph of Ferocity
• 1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
• 2 Oblivion Ring
• 1 Ray of Revelation

Buy This Deck

Red, green, and white have some of the best creatures in Standard: Angel of Serenity, Restoration Angel, Thragtusk, and Huntmaster of the Fells. Naya midrange decks are able to take advantage of them all, which has propelled the deck toward the top of the Standard metagame over the last month.

R/G Aggro

"R/G Aggro by Andrej Selivra (Fifth Place at SCG Open: San Diego, Standard)"

• Creatures (24)
• 2 Huntmaster of the Fells
• 2 Wolfir Silverheart
• 4 Borderland Ranger
• 4 Flinthoof Boar
• 4 Hellrider
• 4 Strangleroot Geist
• 4 Thragtusk

• Spells (12)
• 2 Devil's Play
• 3 Mizzium Mortars
• 4 Pillar of Flame
• 3 Abundant Growth

• Lands (24)
• 11 Forest
• 6 Mountain
• 3 Kessig Wolf Run
• 4 Rootbound Crag

• Sideboard (15)
• 2 Staff of Nin
• 1 Wolfir Silverheart
• 2 Huntmaster of the Fells
• 1 Crushing Vines
• 4 Blasphemous Act
• 2 Tree of Redemption
• 1 Devil's Play
• 2 Ground Seal

Buy This Deck

Haste is the name of the game with this list, and it includes a full play set of Strangleroot Geist and Hellrider in the main deck. Flinthoof Boar is often a 3/3 for 2 mana on the second or third turn and has an option for haste when you have the mana to pay for it. This Fire Pig has been earmarked for use by many a Standard brewer once Stomping Ground arrives to provide better mana and more Mountains; Selivra took it for a test drive early, however, with strong results. Wolfir Silverheart is back in competitive Standard and also provides haste, in a manner of speaking, through the +4/+4 bonus it offers a creature already on the battlefield. Three copies of Kessig Wolf Run are much more manageable with only two colors to worry about, and it provides reach without having to make room for Rancor.

Cards of Choice

Now let’s take a look at the most played creatures and removal spells in the top sixteen decks of the tournament.

This is the first time we’ve had an eight-way tie at the top of the creature pack since I’ve been writing this column. Five decks each ran the format-staple Zombies and black and red aggressive supporting cast members such as Knight of Infamy and Falkenrath Aristocrat. Hellrider appeared in those decks as well as the R/G aggro deck mentioned above, and Huntmaster of the Fells is a favorite of Human Reanimator. Thragtusk, of course, saw plenty of play in both aggressive and midrange decks playing green.

Red still rules the format’s removal options. Pillar of Flame remains the number-one option and was played in nine of the twelve decks running red. Searing Spear jumped to the number-two spot and saw play in all the Zombie lists, B/R aggro, and the R/W/U deck in sixth place.

Removal is on the decline in the top sixteen decks of SCG Open Series tournaments. The total number of removal cards played has dropped by over forty between SCG: Baltimore on December 1, 2012 and SCG: San Diego. A primary reason is that there are fewer control decks, and another reason is the rise of Naya midrange decks, which have more limited card options for direct removal and rely more on creature abilities and battlefield attrition to get rid of opposing creatures. Take a look at the trend in removal cards in the following graph.

The MTG Standard Metagame

The following graphs track the deck archetypes with the most Top 16 finishes in major Standard tournaments. The top graph shows results in the last month, and the bottom shows results since Return to Ravnica rotated into the format in October of 2012.

Naya midrange has replaced B/R Dragon Zombies as the strategy with the most Top 16 finishes in the last thirty days. The Zombies and their Dragon friends are not far behind, however, and neither are a host of other decks. Mono-red has been quite popular on Magic Online, and that could translate into more high finishes over the next couple weeks. After Gatecrash arrives, I expect we will see Boros compete with Rakdos for the position of top aggressive deck of the metagame.

Esper control is another deck that has been finding good results of late and is poised to improve with the influx of new cards in February. An Esper Control deck made the Top 16s of both SCG Open: San Diego and Grand Prix: Atlantic City.

Jund midrange experienced something of a revival in Atlantic City. A quarter share of the Top 16 is the most impressive showing for the deck since SCG Open: Indianapolis back on October 20, 2012.

Competitive Calendar: Upcoming Events in Standard

Here are some major events coming up in the world of competitive Standard.

By the Numbers: Return to Ravnica Preorder Prices

Do you remember the Return to Ravnica preview season? The Magic community was buzzing and all atwitter about spoiled card after spoiled card. We received confirmation the shock lands would be reprinted, learned about the Charm cycle and uncounterable cards, discovered new planeswalkers and interesting creatures, and were treated to gold cards galore. Do you remember what all that hype, excitement, and hunger for a Delverless format did to preorder prices? I was amazed when I first checked preorder prices for cards like Dreadbore and Abrupt Decay, and this sentiment was echoed by many a player about many a card and the set overall.

In this week’s “By the Numbers,” I will revisit the preorder prices for the rares and mythic rares of Return to Ravnica, sixty-eight cards in all. Which cards provided the biggest potential for profit to date? Was preordering Return to Ravnica cards cheaper than waiting? How do the preorder prices compare to current ones? I’ll provide some answers to these questions and additional analysis via my weapon of choice: the graph.

I gathered the StarCityGames prices for all sixty-eight cards at several points since preorders started.

• Preorder Low: The lowest preorder price available for more than three days
• Post-Release High: The highest price for the card since it was released
• Post-Release Low: The lowest price for the card since it was released
• Current Price: The price of the card as of January 9, 2013

Biggest Profits

There were twenty-two cards (32%) that could have been purchased at the Preorder Low and sold at the Post-Release High to make a profit. Those profits range from $.25 to $25 per card with an average of $6.15. These numbers assume you are both buying and selling at retail, not a buy price. Let’s look at the biggest Return to Ravnica opportunities to date. This graph shows the cards with a $5 or greater difference between Preorder Low and Post-Release High prices.

Jace, Architect of Thought was available for preorder at a fairly modest $25 for a little over two weeks before steadily rising to a $50 release price. Preordering early and then selling before the price started dropping in November would have been worth $25.

Sphinx's Revelation was ready to draw you cards and gain life for a mere $6 for the majority of the preorder season. It sells for $25 now and is a staple of the Standard metagame. Trostani, Selesnya's Voice had a much shorter window to turn its $16 profit. It started as a $4 preorder and steadily rose to a $20 high for under a week right after the release.

Five out of the top six price differences are for mythic rare cards, for which the potential for high prices is much greater due to potential availability issues if they become hot. Four of the five shock lands from Return to Ravnica are also on this list, each of which spiked as it found favor in one or more three-color decks.

Better Deals to Come

In most cases, however, you were better off not preordering these cards unless you really wanted them right away. The Preorder Low is greater than the Post-Release Low for fifty-six cards (82%). In these cases, a better price presented itself at some point after release. The Preorder Low has been the highest price to date for forty-two cards (62%), meaning it did not go up at all.

Present-Day Comparisons

The Current Price of the majority of Return to Ravnica rares and mythic rares is either cheaper now or the same price as the Preorder Low.

The Avg $ Diff column is the average difference in dollars between the Current Price and Preorder Low. Most cards, forty-four out of sixty-eight (65%), have a relatively minor price difference: somewhere between plus and minus $1.50. There are some rather large differences as well, however. Let’s look at the biggest drops in price from Preorder Low to the Current Price.

Vraska the Unseen fell victim to the planeswalker preorder tax. Planeswalkers are quite often difficult to evaluate early on. They have multiple abilities that interact with other cards, some of which are unknown quantities themselves. Planeswalkers have the potential to anchor a deck and take over a metagame. They also could be role-players in an existing or new Tier 1 strategy or even serve roles as sideboard cards.

This and the popularity of planeswalkers have led stores and sites to mitigate risk and start them out with high preorder prices and reduce if necessary. Vraska is a prime example, starting at $40. At release, she dropped to about $25 and currently sits at around $8. Even Jace, Architect of Thought, whom we saw above having the most potential for profit, eventually dropped below the Preorder Low by $7. It saw quite a bit of play early in the new Standard metagame but fell into disuse as the metagame became dominated by midrange decks.

Now let’s look at the eight cards that are more expensive now than before the set released:

The most significant differences really stand out, and unsurprisingly, they are some of the most heavily played cards in competitive decks. Sphinx's Revelation and Deathrite Shaman are currently at their Post-Release High. Angel of Serenity was more expensive back in October and November when Reanimator strategies were extremely popular, but it is still $8 higher than its Preorder Low.

What Do You Think? – Gatecrashing Standard

Gatecrash will be released on February 1 and will add two hundred forty-nine cards to Standard, boosting the format’s card pool and increasing the options with which deck-builders can attack the metagame. Odds are that most of these cards will not see any Constructed tournament play. So far, only 25% of the current Standard-legal cards have appeared in a SCG Open: Standard Top 16 deck since the release of Return to Ravnica.

Which Gatecrash cards previewed so far will make the cut? I want to know what you think, so I’ve included a handy poll to find out.

[poll id=217]

I’ll review the results of this poll and report on the accuracy of our predictions in a future article. Do you think you know how Gatecrash cards and mechanics will impact Standard? Tweet your prognostications to @MrVigabool, and I may use them in the article.

The Close

That wraps up this week’s column. I’ll be back next week to review SCG Open: Dallas, analyze the Standard metagame, provide more analysis by the numbers, and ask a new question to see what you think. Thanks for reading!

Nick Vigabool

@MrVigabool