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Revisiting "Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Circle"

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Link (you know what it is).

This may be the most important article you've never read. If you are looking to take your game to the next level, this is the second most important Magic article ever written (the first is Who's the Beatdown?). So, if you read it and didn't think it was important, I urge you to go read it again. Paskins discusses two specific examples of "The Fear" – the Unlikely Nightmare Matchup and the Unbeatable Sideboard Card.

Now, let me ask you two questions:

  1. Do you truly understand "The Fear?"
  2. What should you do about "The Fear?"

For those of you who really understood The Fear, you can probably skip the rest of this article. For the rest of you, let's take an in-depth look at this single, most important aspect of psychological Magic.

What is "The Fear?"

The Fear is an overreaction to an event or state triggered by fear. It's important to realize that all it is – a knee-jerk reaction that you can calm or temper. It is one of the most dangerous reactions in Magic, as it impairs your ability to play well, since it pushes you to make irrational decisions. This is why it is so important to control.

The Fear happens in all sorts of situations. Someone in a recent article mentioned an old story where Finkel was playing Onslaught block limited. He had a Sparksmith on the table (no other goblins though) and killed his opponent's Wirewood Hearld. His opponent went to fetch Timberwatch Elf. A little while later, Finkel had won the game and the Timberwatch Elf was still in his opponent's hand.

So what happened? Why did his opponent not play the Timberwatch Elf? The answer is simple – his opponent succumbed to The Fear. Finkel's opponent was afraid he had a second goblin and would simply kill the Timberwatch Elf the moment it hit the table, and thus never played it.

The Fear applies in all areas of Magic – it applies during deck selection (Unlikely Nightmare Match-up), deck construction (Unlikely Nightmare Match-up and Unbeatable Sideboard Card), and during actual game situations (see above). Learning to conquer and control it to the best of your ability is one of the most important things for improving your play.

Understanding "The Fear"

Fear is a natural human response and emotion. It is a survival instinct. However, when it comes to strategic games and situations, it is usually a hindrance. This is because fear causes the person experiencing it to place unnatural importance on the thing causing the fear. This is good when you are trying to run away from a lion that's about to maul you; however, if you are trying to construct an intricate tactical plan, it's one of the worst things that can happen. This is because overvaluing a specific card or interaction will cause you to misappropriate your resources. Sure, you won't lose to the thing you're afraid of, but you'll lose because you've weakened your deck in other areas, and that is where your opponent will attack you.

Recognizing when you are prone to this is the first step, and it's also the easiest; all you have to do is look for the "oh crap" moment. I'm sure you've all felt it. Your opponent does something during the game and the only thing that comes into your mind is "Oh crap" (warning: your thoughts may contain more colorful language). This moment does not mean that you have The Fear, but it does mean you are prone to it.

The "oh crap" moment occurs because your opponent just played a strong card against you and you have to make a tactical adjustment. This is a good thing. Recognizing what cards are important and what cards are not is central to your Strategic Planning. There are two places you encounter The Fear – outside of the game and inside of the game. I'm going to break them down separately.

Outside the game (mostly covered by Paskins):

Here the thing to ask yourself is this – am I reacting to the card/interaction that my opponent just essentially beat me single-handedly with? If you are, you are probably succumbing to The Fear. The proper thing to react to when you are sideboarding or building a deck is the strategy that your opponent uses. For example, let's say you are playing Legacy, and you are playing a Counterbalance mirror. You're playing a typical UG build splashing white and red (for Firespout). Your opponent is playing an Enlightened Tutor centric build that is mostly UW. Your opponent then plays Life from the Loam and proceeds to destroy you with Loam and Wasteland.

What should you do here? Should you board in all those Tormod's Crypts/Relics/Leylines that you have for decks like Dredge? If you do, you are succumbing to The Fear. Your fear of the Loam + Wasteland interaction is going to cause you to put dead cards in your deck. Sure, boarding in some graveyard hate is probably profitable (even if he didn't show it, Thopter Foundry and Sword of the Meek are probably in his deck as well), but turning your deck into a graveyard-hating machine is not the way to go.

Why is this though? If you look at the match-up dynamic, you will realize that you are supposed to be the beatdown (Hi Mike, we still remember you!). The UW Counterbalance deck has a much stronger long game with Academy Ruins (potentially), Life from the Loam, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and Thopter Foundry to generate persistent advantage.

What do you have? The answer is also simple – Tarmogoyf. Sure, you have other things as well, but the main thing you have that he doesn't is the big fat man. Tarmogoyf is a very good aggressive creature, and in this match-up it is correct to be applying pressure with the Goyfs. Boarding in lots of graveyard hate is counter-productive to this strategy, because it reduces your threat density, thus making it easier for your opponent to deal with the threats that you present and use his superior long game to beat you.

Aside:

Incidentally, this is why I am a strong advocate of Jotuen Grunt in Legacy. I think the card is heavily underplayed. It is an excellent way of dealing with graveyard advantage engines like Loam/Academy Ruins and sometimes even Dredge, while being a 4/4 creature for 2 mana. It enables you to play both an aggressive and a more controlling game, depending on the situation. I don't think it's a 4 of in every deck or sideboard, but it is a card that is forgotten far more often than it should be.

Essentially, the major takeaway here is to not overreact to what just beat you. You have to create a tactical or strategic plan that best maximizes your chances of beating your opponent's deck and not the specific card that just kicked your ass.

Inside the Game:

Sometimes you'll have that "oh crap" moment inside the game, and you'll be vulnerable to The Fear. The most important thing here (to avoid The Fear) is to follow a two-step process:

Step 1: Determine what the best course of action is for you to win the game.

Step 2: Follow through, and re-evaluate when opportunities present themselves (or if you realize you screwed up in step 1).

When you determine what you should be doing, you should take into account all factors, including the likelihood of your opponent being able to stop your plan. Sometimes your plan will be a huge long shot, but if that's the best you have, that's the best you have. You can't get cold feet because your opponent might have the right answer.

The second part is to make sure you follow through. The only situation you should re-evaluate is when your opponent makes a mistake and therefore gives you an opportunity. If your opponent does Absolutely Terrible Thing #2 to go on top of Absolutely Terrible Thing #1 (which caused the "oh crap"), it's probably time for you to enter the Scoop Phase, so you really don't need to re-evaluate very often under those conditions.

As for you screwing up in step 1, well all I can say is don't. If you screw up your step 1 evaluation you probably will lose to whatever it is your opponent did, but if you feel your new plan is worth trying, then try it (just make sure you follow through).

Here we can return to the Finkel example above. Finkel's opponent clearly decided that his best chance of beating the Sparksmith was via Timberwatch Elf (which was often true). However, Finkel's nameless opponent then got cold feet and didn't execute part 2 of his plan – putting the elf on the table (part 1 was fetching the elf with Wirewood Herald). He was afraid that Finkel would simply play the second goblin.

Remember – Follow through. Once you commit yourself to the line of play, you are commited, don't half-ass it.

Conclusion

The most important thing to remember about conquering The Fear is to keep a clear head. When you feel that twinge of fear inside you the best thing to do is to step back, take a deep breath, and ask yourself "Am I doing the right thing? Am I succumbing to The Fear?" Answer yourself honestly, and you'll be a better player.

Everyone succumbs to The Fear at some point or another. Everyone will find themselves on the brink as well. The most important thing when controlling this aspect of psychological Magic is to minimize the number of times you go "over the edge" so to speak. You will succumb to The Fear. It is inevitable. However, if you can minimize the amount that you do it, you'll be a better player.

Chingsung Chang

Conelead most everywhere and on MTGO

Khan32k5@gmail.com

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