The results from Nationals Qualifiers are rolling in. While not all of the results are available on Wizards.com at the time I'm writing this article, the Top 8 for eighteen events had been posted. This made for a total of 144 deck lists, which definitely is enough data to start making some observations about the current Standard environment. There were eighteen different archetypes that made Top 8 appearances, but five of them were lone appearances, and only four decks made ten or more appearances: U/W control, R/U/G, Valakut ramp, and R/B Vampires.

I'm going to fall over and die . . . from unsurprise.

The deck with by far the most representation in Top 8s was Blue/White control, in the vast majority of cases Caw-Blade, occasionally with a splash of Red. It accounted for a mind-blowing 63 of the 144 decks. Perhaps even more impressive was the fact that it won eight of the eighteen events.

Andrew Getsay won the Ohio Qualifier with a fairly typical Caw-Blade deck:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

4 Squadron Hawk

4 Stoneforge Mystic

[/Creatures]

[Planeswalkers]

3 Gideon Jura

4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

[/Planeswalkers]

[Spells]

2 Condemn

3 Mana Leak

4 Spell Pierce

2 Day of Judgment

4 Preordain

2 Sword of Feast and Famine

2 Tumble Magnet

[/Spells]

[Lands]

4 Island

4 Plains

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Glacial Fortress

1 Inkmoth Nexus

1 Misty Rainforest

4 Seachrome Coast

4 Tectonic Edge

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

2 Baneslayer Angel

1 Sun Titan

1 Venser, the Sojourner

1 Condemn

1 Divine Offering

4 Flashfreeze

4 Oust

1 Sword of Body and Mind

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

One the one hand, the numbers strongly suggest that Caw-Blade is almost certainly the best deck right now. On the other hand, if the best deck to play were only played by five people, it would be impossible for it to have the same stats. Since Caw-Blade is perceived as the best deck, an inordinate number of top players played it, increasing the chances of Top 8s being flooded with it. I suspect the most-played deck that didn't make the Top 8 is also U/W control, in part because it was probably the most-played deck. My speculation aside, Caw-Blade was clearly the top dog at the National Qualifiers.

The dominance of U/W control contributed to another unsurprising stat: 95 of the 144 decks were running Jace, the Mind Sculptor. This should increase the outcry to ban it and the importance of playing with Lightning Bolt. Another contributor to this stat was the deck with the second most Top 8 appearances: R/U/G. This is another nonsurprise, especially for those who followed the results of GP: Dallas. Although it was the second-most-dominant deck, it was poorly represented compared to U/W: seventeen Top 8s and two wins.

Probably the most-played card that wasn't a staple of U/W control was Lightning Bolt, appearing in 61 of the 144 decks. While Lightning Bolt is obviously a really good card, I can't help but assume its current popularity is partially in response to the popularity of the Mind Sculptor. One of the most exciting things about playing R/U/G is having a good excuse to play with both Jace and Lightning Bolt.

That's Unexpected

The other two decks that were represented in double figures were a surprise, but for different reasons: Valakut ramp and R/B Vampires both had ten decks make the Top 8; Valakut had two wins, and Vampires had one. Vampires surprised by its success, Ramp surprised by not having more success.

Vampires was the aggro deck that made the most Top 8 appearances and along with Boros the only ones to win a qualifier. Kiel Connelly won the qualifier in Florida with Vamps:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

4 Bloodghast

4 Gatekeeper of Malakir

2 Hero of Oxid Ridge

4 Kalastria Highborn

4 Pulse Tracker

4 Vampire Hexmage

4 Vampire Lacerator

3 Viscera Seer

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

2 Burst Lightning

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Arc Trail

[/Spells]

[Lands]

6 Swamp

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

4 Dragonskull Summit

4 Lavaclaw Reaches

1 Marsh Flats

4 Verdant Catacombs

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

1 Hero of Oxid Ridge

2 Manic Vandal

2 Vampire Nighthawk

1 Doom Blade

1 Go for the Throat

1 Vendetta

2 Arc Trail

3 Mark of Mutiny

2 Dark Tutelage

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

The key to the success of this deck may be its match up with Caw-Blade. Lightning Bolt can take out Jace, an Inkmoth Nexus, or a creature about to be equipped. Arc Trail can kill a Mystic and a Hawk. Gatekeeper can clear a Wall out of the way. A swarm of cheap creatures can put enough pressure on to stop the opponent from sitting back on Mana Leaks. Bloodghast, Kalastria Highborn, and Viscera Seer can lessen the impact of Day of Judgment.

Given its long dominance in Standard, many expected a greater impact by Valakut ramp. Going into the qualifiers, it was the deck making the most Top 8 appearances. If GP: Dallas wasn't evidence enough, it's now clear there is a changing of the guard at the top of the ranks in Standard.

Another surprise result was the return of U/B control. There were six copies of it making Top 8 appearances, and two of those won their qualifiers. Austin Downs won Minnesota with two creatures, and Philip Loren won Georgia with just one creature. Austin overcame a Top 8 that included four Caw-Blade decks and a R/U/G deck. Phillip played against another U/B control deck in the finals of a Top 8 with six U/W control decks. One of the reasons that U/B control decks used to be near the top of the Standard heap was the popularity of U/W control and the ability to counter it with U/B. The results in Minnesota and Georgia seem to suggest that maybe U/B can be the answer to U/W again.

Surprise, Surprise

While Valakut ramp may be sliding in Standard, other Red decks are on the rise. Obviously, R/U/G and R/B Vampires are doing well, but mono-Red decks may have been the biggest surprise of the qualifiers. Eight Red Deck Wins decks made Top 8s, as well as four Kuldotha Phoenix decks. Most unexpected, two of those Phoenix decks won their events, and another finished second to a Phoenix deck. I think it's safe to call Phoenix Red the surprise deck of the qualifiers. Tommy Luke won Colorado with it:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

2 Inferno Titan

4 Kuldotha Phoenix

4 Obsidian Fireheart

[/Creatures]

[Planeswalkers]

4 Koth of the Hammer

[/Planeswalkers]

[Spells]

4 Burst Lightning

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Staggershock

4 Everflowing Chalice

4 Sphere of the Suns

4 Tumble Magnet

[/Spells]

[Lands]

22 Mountain

2 Tectonic Edge

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

1 Wurmcoil Engine

3 Pyroclasm

1 Slagstorm

3 Traitorous Instinct

4 Brittle Effigy

3 Ratchet Bomb

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

There are many things I like about this deck. The deck has eight ways to get to 4 mana on turn three, and eight really powerful things to play with 4 mana: Fireheart and Koth. Tumble Magnets are great for holding off Titans or creatures with equipment. With twelve artifacts, Kuldotha Phoenix can be a real problem in the late game, especially for many control decks in the environment. With four Brittle Effigy in the sideboard, Tommy is obviously trying to keep Kor Firewalkers in check (not to mention Titans and Wurmcoil Engines.)

My favorite deck I've seen make a Top 8 appearance so far in the qualifiers would have to be the R/G deck played by DeQuan Watson in Texas:

[cardlist]

[Creatures]

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Goblin Bushwhacker

3 Hero of Oxid Ridge

4 Inferno Titan

4 Kozilek's Predator

4 Nest Invader

[/Creatures]

[Planeswalkers]

2 Garruk Wildspeaker

[/Planeswalkers]

[Spells]

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Growth Spasm

3 Awakening Zone

3 Furnace Celebration

[/Spells]

[Lands]

5 Forest

5 Mountain

2 Contested War Zone

4 Copperline Gorge

4 Raging Ravine

3 Rootbound Crag

[/Lands]

[Sideboard]

2 Acidic Slime

2 Wurmcoil Engine

3 Arc Trail

3 Mark of Mutiny

2 Sylvok Lifestaff

3 Tumble Magnet

[/Sideboard]

[/cardlist]

I love the tight synergies in this deck. I like the originality, making use of rarely used cards and rarely used combinations of cards. I've never seen Furnace Celebration used in constructed, but it seems like a perfect fit here. Awakening Zone rarely gets used in an aggro deck, and it's the first time I've seen Bushwhackers used with Spawn tokens. The deck has fourteen ways to make token creatures and nine ways to pump them up. If you have a Celebration in play, every Spawn token plus 1 mana equals 2 damage.

Yeah, So?

The big question to be answered is: Exactly what do these results mean? Does this mean that you'd be a fool to play anything but a polished version of Caw-Blade? If you're already an experienced and successful Caw-Blade player, that may be exactly the right mindset. If not, perhaps it's worth taking a look at U/B control or Big Red Phoenix. If aggro is more your style, maybe give R/B Vampires a try. Not surprisingly, what it comes down to is: Either play Caw-Blade ready for lots of mirror matches, or play a deck that gives you the best chance to beat Caw-Blade.