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Determining Magic Draft Values

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I’m getting set for Grand Prix Indianapolis! I always get excited for big events and I’m hoping that I don’t KONK out too early.

So, I’m a bit inspired by drafting and I thought I’d share some of my thoughts with you. For those of you who know me, know that I have a very unconventional draft strategy. I tend to draft by card value, as opposed to themes or color. I don’t mean rare drafting or the card’s dollar value. I’m talking about the cards “draft” value. I should call this my “Power to the People” drafting style. It basically incorporates the “BEST” overall card in each pack, I determine this by statistical data from drafts as well as opinions from “good” players that I respect.

In the old days, we used to spend hours talking about draft choices and what was good and why. Fortunately for you, times have changed and you can find statistical data to support choices and how much they may weigh upon you or your deck. Or, you can just use it as a reference. Look at the table below:

CC Card Name DV Color Rarity
2G Call of the Herd 1.5735 Green R
4UU Draining Whelk 1.5908 Blue R
1RG Stormbind 1.5963 Gold R
5R Firemaw Kavu 1.6126 Red U
9R Greater Gargadon 1.6325 Red R
3G Stonewood Invocation 1.6778 Green R
5 Stuffy Doll 1.6978 Art R
7 Triskelavus 1.702 Artifact R
2U Psionic Blast 1.7354 Blue U
6BB Avatar of Woe 1.7554 Black R
2RR Sulfurous Blast 1.7638 Red U
2W Sacred Mesa 1.8095 White R
6U Errant Ephemeron 1.8691 Blue C

I created this spreadsheet as an example of draft statistics. This is summed up by literally thousands of drafts for just Timespiral. The snapshot above includes Rares, Uncommons and Commons for the purpose of showing the relative value regardless of rarity. Now obviously there are almost ALL rares at the top of the list, but as you move down there’s more of a mix in rarity.

[cardpic card="Call of the Herd"][/cardpic]
So, the purpose of this discuss is to get you the newbie OR the pro to recognize that “draftability” can effect your decks overall value. The number you want to pay attention to is the number to the left of the card color. This represents the draft order of the card, so Call of the Herd is a first pick with some cards being of a higher pick value (the lower the number the better) I believe that with over 1000 people drafting or 1000 drafts to have taken place, Call of the Herd MUST be a better card rated higher at 1.5735 than Errant Ephemeron at 1.8691. Even though one might not consider this to be significant, let’s look at it with just 5 card choices:

Player A Player B
Call of the Herd 1.5735 Draining Whelk 1.5908
Stormbind 1.5963 Stuffy Doll 1.6978
Greater Gargadon 1.6325 Psionic Blast 1.7354
Stuffy Doll 1.6978 Avatar of Woe 1.7554
Sulfurous Blast 1.7638 Errant Ephemeron 1.8691
8.2639 8.6485

With 5 picks, you can see that Player A’s advantage has gone up almost .5. This is STILL not significant. However, considering the fact that this is from a pool of 13 cards and they’re mostly rare. What you have to consider is that you have 3 separate pools of 15 and each of those cards have a perceived play/draft value. With essentially 23 choices that go into your main deck, a few picks can be a HUGE difference. Think of it like this, if you make a 40 card deck of ONLY land, you have a VERY small chance of beating someone who has 39 lands and 1 creature or 38 lands and 2 creatures, etc. What this means is that you have a finite value based on your 45 cards. Add to that, the mana base theory we’ve provided in one of our episodes and you should be good to go.

Here’s what should be going through your mind when taking PICK 2 and beyond:

  1. What is this cards value overall? This is about picking cards that are versatile virtually EVERY time you draw it. Some cards are situational others are always useful.
  2. Is this card usable with my last picks? Is it Tribal? Does it have some uber combo I can use?
  3. Does this card share color(s) with my last pick(s)? With Shadowmoor, you can be mono colored even though you have chosen multicolored cards.
  4. Do I have enough removal? I usually look to up to 9 or 10 removal/utility cards
  5. Do I have enough creatures? I’m comfortable with 11 to 14 creatures
  6. What is the current mana curve of my selections? You DON’T high picks if they’re all 5cc and above
  7. Is this card worth any money? HaHa sorry, but this IS something to consider!

Now with subtle dips in value, you can pick cards that will work better for you. You MUST consider casting costs, creature or removal. Sometimes, that will force you to take a card of a lesser value than an explosive rare. In the Shadowmoor draft, Power of Fire has moved up quite a bit in rankings earlier. However, it doesn’t need to be said, how much this card has improved. On the flip side of the coin, what good is having 4x Power of Fire if you only have 2 creatures? Another great example is having Firespout with NO red or green mana. Kind of a big mistake.

This system is the foundation to my success (if you wanna call it that). No matter what you do in life, you HAVE to have a plan. Your current plan can switch to another plan. I’d love to hear how this works for you all. Let me know if this was helpful.

Lee

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