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Early Dominaria Finance

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So how about that Dominaria set? Some cards got spoiled a bit early but this set has a perfect blend of nostalgia, reprints, and sweet new cards all with new awesome art to really get people excited. The whole set isn't spoiled yet so I don't have all of the information I need to make the best judgment, but there is plenty to talk about with what has been spoiled.

Dominaria is a pretty rare set in a lot of ways. The preorder pricing for this set has been pretty flat across many cards. That's pretty unusual since there is very often a few standouts that interest people the most and a lot of cards that are possible diamonds in the rough. This set has pretty flat value across the board. There are a few cards that stand out (and we'll get to them momentarily) but there are also a lot of $3-8 cards. There's also a pretty significant amount of value in the uncommons right now which leads me to say this is the first Standard set in a while I'm going to buy sealed product of. When the set's value is spread over many cards at many rarities it makes it less likely a feel bad box will happen. Given that you can find sealed boxes around $90 on most online stores, I don't think it's likely you will lose any money if you want the cards contained inside.

I know you all want to hear about my personal opinions of the cards in this set, right? This is why you read these articles! There are some standouts I want to talk about and try to temper some expectations if you were going to go pre-order them.

Right now Karn is preordering for over $30 and I think that people are severely overestimating how good he will be. I understand that Karn is colorless and because of that he has the potential to be extremely popular and extremely expensive. Colorless cards can always be dangerous and undervalued, but I think people have started to overestimate them based on their experiences with Hangarback Walker and Walking Ballista. Karn isn't a very flexible creature like both of those and the 4-drop slot is pretty packed right now in Standard. In Modern, this is almost assuredly not better than Karn Liberated or Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Colorless cards in Modern really need to cost 0, 1, 4 or 5 if they're Eldrazi, or 6 or more if they're not. The way that Tron lands dictate how good colorless cards can be is important. Ultimately, I think Karn is probably a $10-15 card on novelty and casual demand alone but at $30+ he's a hard sell for me. There is nothing to suggest he will be good right now and you can always pick him up later when people realize he's not as good as they want him to be.

This card has Mox in the name so I can understand people being hyped for it. The track record for mox cards is pretty strong. Mox Opal was the last one and has a much easier condition to make mana. This card is, I think, one of the most misunderstood card in the set. It doesn't make colorless mana, it never fixes your mana, and it doesn't tap for mana if you don't control a legendary creature or planeswalker. Mox Diamond and Chrome Mox are easy to turn on (it costs a card), Opal requires 2 other artifacts (which can often cost 0/1 mana) and Amber requires a legendary creature or planeswalker. There are none of those that cost 0 and it wouldn't help because they'd be colorless. The ones that cost 1 are not very good on their own (Kytheon, Hero of Akros, Isamaru, Hound of Konda) and arguably not really that much better being able to play two on the first turn. With that in mind, how often do you think this card ends up actually casting spells that matter in a timely manner? At $25 right now I think this isn't the card you want to own. It is more of a novelty that will be played in casual decks and fringe brews and not tier 1 Standard or Modern decks with 4 copies. Things could change and I might be wrong but right now I can't offer the advice to anyone that this is a good purchase or hold. If you listened to the Cartel Aristocrats Podcast last week you can hear Ed and I have a very different opinion of this card.

So the most obvious analogous to this card is Baneslayer Angel. I know, I get it. I really don't think that giving your other Angels +1/+1 and lifelink is better than protection from Dragons and Demons as odd as it sounds. This card is the quintessential road block for Red aggressive decks. It gains life, it's hard to kill in combat, and it ends the game quickly. There are a few problems right now. This doesn't block any of the best Red cards successfully. It can't block Hazoret profitably, Ahn-crop Crasher embarrasses it completely, and Glorybringer can take it down with help of a burn spell, Fanatical Firebrand, Goblin Chainwhirler, or Soul-Scar Mage. Lyra tries really hard to take up the mantle and price tag left by Baneslayer Angel but I think right now there's no job for her to do. She can get outsided in the bg Constrictor matchup and killed pretty easily by the amount of Vraska's Contempts running around. At this point I don't think Lyra has the size or efficiency required to become an important part of Standard and will likely end up a close to bulk mythic like Gisela, the Broken Blade was. Right now she's the third most expensive card in the set at $15 but one of the ones I have the least expectations from.

All right before you get mad at me for this, I understand this is a good card and I expect it to be very popular. However, it is preordering for a large amount of money and will unlikely see any Standard play. I don't think this is a $4 card in a month. If you want to steal some games from Tron or Storm with your aggressive deck that doesn't interact with them well, you can buy these now and use them. If you're thinking about getting them because you might need them in the future, just wait. This card won't be like Fatal Push because it won't be a Standard all-star. This set looks like it will be opened more than Aether Revolt was and there should be more than enough copies to go around. I expect this to settle around $2 with the foils being significantly more expensive.

While there are still more cards to talk about I think it was important to address these because I think these are prime targets that you should be looking to sell or trade away on pre-release weekend. I don't see them keeping their current price tag and the opportunity cost of holding them is too great. That being said, I think there are a lot of great cards in this set for a lot of different players and you will not have trouble finding people that want what you have and have what you need.


Dominaria is Now Available for Preorder!

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