Locations
The street date for Scars of Mirrodin is nigh. Everyone's been brewing in anticipation of a new format, and I am no exception to the rule. I'm loosely planning to attend the TCG Player 5K in New York City, my home town, this weekend, and I've been staring at Gatherer for weeks, trying to find a deck. I'm enthralled by the number of options this new set affords us. It is a known fact that people, when presented with a significant number of options, are less likely to commit to a decision as the number of options increases, and I am no exception to that rule. Thus, I wanted to consider the financial implications of being a good and decisive deck builder as I meander through a few options for the upcoming 5K.
The truth of the matter is that, while I am mostly known for making speculative calls on cards before they rise in value, I am also a half-decent deck builder. This is not because Conley Woods and I share some sort of ancestral lineage, or because I drink from the same tap water as Patrick Chapin and Gerry Thompson. No, I do not pretend to compare myself to the contemporary masters of seventy-five card selection. Far from it. However, since my "day job" involves knowing the price and potential of just about every Magic card ever printed, I've had to hone my skills as a deck builder. Why? Because when it comes to evaluating a card for purchase, one must consider all the angles, much the same as a deck builder. In reality, speculation and deck building are one and the same skill! You're making educated guesses, backed up by empirical evidence, and placing money on the outcome. There is usually a rigorous process of hypothesis formation and testing, and there are often many dead ends.
A new format brings a lot of changes, and one of the most daunting tasks facing a deckbuilder in this environment has got to be metagaming. How the hell am I supposed to know what everyone else is playing? The easy answer is, you don't! You can make a lot of really smart guesses about the metagame, but in the end, your guess is only as good as anyone else's. Let's apply some academic rigor to the process to help us come up with a deck archetype, and then go from there. Remember, if you want to look like a prophet in speculation, figure out what decks people will be playing before the results come in. I'm much more interested in buying the right cards before an event than I am with winning the event, sadly to say.
The first thing to consider, as I said, was a broad archetype. Aggro, control and combo are all archetypes, and there are hybrids between the two. There's aggro control, there's control with a combo finish (think thopter-depths in old Extended), there are aggro decks that have no mid or long game...the list goes on and on, but I've found that most decks begin as a dedicated version of one of the three main archetypes. We're going to explore which archetype to pick, but don't be surprised if, once we pick an archetype, we discover something about another archetype in the process. This is common and can really prove to be an effective way to learn a format.
How do we know which to build? Well, combo decks usually require a lot of tweaking, testing, and correct numbers. Unless a combo deck just jumps right out and hits me in the face, I haven't got the time to really build one to the best of my liking. Also, most combo decks rely on absolutely flawless execution, and given that I'll have maybe 4 hours to test this deck, I can't trust myself to get off a plane at LaGuardia, sleeve up a combo deck, and crush the Top 8. I'll rule out combo for this reason, however those with the time to really brew seriously should look at the potential for abusive combos. If there was ever a tournament for which to build a combo deck, this was it.
Then we have control. I love control decks, but there is one glaring flaw in running control this weekend. You remember the magic truism "there's no such thing as a 'wrong threat' only a 'wrong answer'"? That's the problem. I've no idea what threats I'll need to answer. Sure, I could pack some Day of Judgment, some Venser, some Mind Sculptors, and so forth, but frankly, I have no idea what shenanigans other people will come up with. There's no worse feeling than playing a control deck without an answer to their game plan. Thus, I'm going to shelf the Venser Control list in my head for the moment. Recurring Wall of Omens every turn is pretty spicy, but I'm just afraid I won't have the right answers for the right decks.
That leaves us in the capable and potent role of the beat-down. It was around this time last year that I build a copy of the now-infamous Boros Bushwhacker deck and began dominating local tournaments with it. Though my authorship of the deck is questionable, as I know a few lists evolved in parallel with my own, the principles remain sound and many of the key cards remain legal. Thus, I am inclined to consider a very fast aggressive deck first. The reason is simple. Most decks by default will not be able to handle the quick starts that a deck like Boros can bring to the table. We needn't stay R/W. In fact, with these new dual lands, splashing another color should prove academic. Between enemy fetch lands and tons of options for allied dual lands, we might be able to cheat on our mana base a bit. I am disinclined to do so, since I would really prefer to run tons of utility lands like Smoldering Spires, but we'll get to that part when we talk about the metagame.
Now that we've locked in the archetype, we can start to look at the various sub-options within the realm of playing beatdown. There's Red Deck Wins, which usually employs a combination of cheap haste creatures and burn to kill the other guy before they get on their feet. There's the Boros decks, which use Landfall, perhaps some equipment, and a giant rush of creatures. We've also got Elf strategies, which are a turn or two slower but can be much more resilient. We've also got access to a really stellar tribal lord and a great Planeswalker. Ever tried to race a Nissa Revane? Ain't happening. There is also the artifact-baesd white weenie deck that Pat Chapin has been championing, but I haven't really had a chance to sleeve the deck up yet. It looks promising, however.
When thinking about a deck that wins on the first four turns, you've got to ask yourself how not to lose to decks designed to beat aggro. Our worst fear are the following cards: Day of Judgment, Condemn, Wall of Omens and Sea Gate Oracle. These cards are single-handedly capable of blunting an aggro deck's assault until the control deck can locate a game-ender like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I'm not as worried about Jace as I am about the cards that allow them to survive until Jace. That means that Day of Judgment isn't as scary as it could be.
Getting around the cantripping walls is easy; red decks can use Smoldering Spires and white decks can use Sejiri Steppe. Obviously those lands come at a price of mana development, but it's often worth it to consider those lands as being just as good as a Lightning Bolt in many board states. You'd rather not kill the walls, since that sucks damage away from the player. There will be circumstances where killing the wall is correct, but I'd rather hit the player or the Planeswalker.
Putting aside our specific deck for a moment, I want to apply "best cards" theory to our potential brews. This is a method I use for determining where I want to apply my deck building time and effort. I simply ask what the best cards in the format are, and how I could most effectively leverage them. In the red decks we consider, Goblin Guide does something nothing else can - swing on turn 1. This is a GREAT counter to Wall of Omens, as they effectively start the game on 16 life when you hit a Guide on the play. In green decks, we have Vengevine and Fauna Shaman, both of which are capable of busting open both a long game and an early game. Blue decks obviously have Jace. A different sort of green deck has access to Primeval Titan, which would also lead me to consider cards like Koth of the Hammer. In white, we have the absurd Stoneforge Mystic.
When brewing for a new format, my inclination is to build a fast, resilient deck that doesn't try to do anything too fancy. I like to stick to existing archetypes, as the odds that a given archetype will come out of nowhere to win it all is very low. The decks just haven't existed long enough to reach the level of fine-tuning that existing decks have. Thus, I think we'll start with a Boros list as a jumping-off point. I'm intentionally trying to mitigate the number of mythic rares and new cards in this deck, as most players don't have the luxury of owning a store and cracking a few cases for singles.
Let's start with a few of the best cards in the deck:
To me, that's the core of any decent Boros aggro deck. The landfall creatures are big enough to bash through walls all day long, the Guide comes out fast, Bolt provides insane reach and removal, and Stoneforge Mystic is the deck's only source of card advantage. I'm not sure how many Mystics I want to use yet, but let's start working on the Mystic Package
That seems like a fun set of equipment to run. I'm thinking that 1x of each is fine for now, but I'm also open to running multiple copies of the Gear. The mix of Mystics, equipment and other spells will depend on the other creatures we run. We have a few options here, and the one that I believe is most effective is the option that leverages both our low mana curve and our use of Stoneforge Mystic. If we are going to play the singleton Argentum Armor, we need to strongly consider the use of Kor Outfitter, which lets us cheat the Armor's equip cost. More on that in a bit. I'm opting for Darksteel Axe over Trusty Machette just because I predict a heavier-than-average amount of artifact hate. Having something that can't be blown up mid-combat will be worth the 1 toughness loss, I am sure. Here are some other guys that will benefit from being equipped:
Kemba is a no-brainer in this deck, as a 2/4 for 3 that can give us card advantage cannot be passed up. Card advantage in an aggressive deck is very rare, and the "equipment matters" theme will be in full force due to Stoneforge Mystic. Kor Duelist is a powerhouse and a fantastic place to put an Adventuring Gear. It's one more creature that the opponent MUST BLOCK at most stages of the game, which also makes it a natural home for Infiltration Lens, another card that can make it tough to grind us out. Spikeshot Elder is yet another powerhouse 1-drop that gives us value on equipment, and I kind of have to play with it since it was my preview card. Them's the rules. Now we need to consider lands. I won't build the full mana base until I know what spells we're using, but there are a few cards that are non-negotiable in this deck.
Where does that leave us? I'm going to fill in some preliminary numbers (that are not supposed to add up to 36, or 60, or any other number). My inclination when deck building is to start everything as a 4-of unless specified otherwise. This is so that I can get a good idea of how a card plays when I'm testing it.
[cardlist]
[Spells]
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Basilisk Collar
1 Argentum Armor
1 Infiltration Lens
1 Adventuring Gear
1 Darksteel Axe
[/Spells]
[Creatures]
4 Goblin Guide
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Steppe Lynx
4 Plated Geopede
4 Kor Duelist
4 Spikeshot Elder
4 Kemba, Kha Regent
[/Creatures]
[/cardlist]
Math was never my best subject in school, but I can see we are about full-up here. This is 37 cards, which is, give or take, about how many spells I'd like to play in a deck like this. Since we're using tons of fetch lands to power landfall, we'll have to err closer to 24 land so that we don't thin our deck out too much, too fast. I never stick to the first numbers I write down, since many are predicated on ideas that may not even make the final cut. We already discussed that the 1-of Argentum Armor should probably imply 4 copies of Kor Outfitter, which is probably the worst card we've considered adding. We could leave the Armor in, but the odds this deck ever sees 6 mana is very low. I'd save the Armor shenanigans for a dedicated Kor deck, where you can get value out of putting it on to an Armament Master (which conveniently stops the hurt of playing Kor Outfitter). That's an idea for another time, and I'll be sure to file it away.
So, we'll cut the Argentum Armor or move it to the sideboard. There may be matchups where it's just the best thing to tutor up, so we'll keep it on our radar. I'd like to see us playing a few extra copies of Adventuring Gear, and I'd also like the ability to rebuy a Stoneforge Mystic or a Land with Kor Skyfisher. The Skyfisher also gives us much-needed evasion, and is a great body for its cost. The drawback is rarely enforced as a drawback. With the Armor out of our deck, we'll need to make three cuts to fit in some Kor Skyfishers. I found 3 was a comfortable number, since drawing multiples can really screw with your early development. Let's do the following:
+3 Kor Skyfisher.
I'd really like to get another copy of Adventuring Gear in here to increase the chances of a Kor Duelist nut draw, but I think I'll be OK with just the one for now. Time to add the mana base of 24 lands. I'm going to trim a few of the 12 fetch lands to make room for the evasion lands. The balance between Sejiri Steppe and Smoldering Spires is a metagame call, and I'm not sure there is a correct answer right now; at least, not one that's knowable.
5 Plains
4 Mountain
Building a sideboard for a deck like this is tough. Some of the best cards against other decks are also awesome against us. Tunnel Ignus and Leonin Arbiter can punish our deck very hard, so rather than playing with them, we've got to play against them. That means more removal.
1 Lighting Bolt
I wish nothing more than to be able to play Galvanic Blast, but alas, we haven't the artifacts to support it. Burst Lightning is a fine substitute, and the fourth Lightning Bolt finds a home on our bench.
This is my idea of a good time! I am unsure what matchup will require the singleton Armor, but I can imagine a time when having that out of the board will absolutely slay. In an unknown metagame, it's a chance I'm absolutely willing to take. The second copy of Infiltration Lens is there for aggro-on-aggro matchups, where there will be a lot of trading going on. You can also choose to board it in against decks that run many copies of Wall of Omens and Sea Gate Oracle to punish them and offset the card advantage they're generating.
Burn can handle creatures, and we should ideally be able to put sufficient pressure on opposing Planeswalkers. Given that the entire set of Scars of Mirrodin is artifact-based, I'd like to be able to answer those types of cards somewhere in our registered deck list. Revoke Existence gets the nod over Shatter because it can handle troublesome enchantments like Tempered Steel. Losing instant speed means we can't blow them out by nuking their Crusade mid-combat, but I'm not too afraid of being chump blocked by Memnites all day. Infiltration Lens will see to that. That leaves us with 4 slots open, and as I usually do, I'm going to build an 11-card sideboard. Why? There's always some tech that crops up at the last minute, and you'll need slots to devote to it. You will have variances in your local metagames, and you'll sometimes just "have a feeling" and want to run a card. Rather than risk cutting the wrong thing, I'm going to just leave the slot up to you. My vote goes to Cunning Sparkmage, since it absolutely demolishes the aggro matchups with Basilisk Collar (as we all know). Here's our final deck list:
[cardlist]
[Lands]
4 Arid Mesa
3 Marsh Flats
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Smoldering Spires
2 Sejiri Steppe
5 Plains
4 Mountain
[/Lands]
[Spells]
3 Lightning Bolt
1 Basilisk Collar
1 Infiltration Lens
1 Adventuring Gear
1 Darksteel Axe
[/Spells]
[Creatures]
4 Goblin Guide
3 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Steppe Lynx
4 Plated Geopede
4 Kor Duelist
4 Spikeshot Elder
3 Kemba, Kha Regent
3 Kor Skyfisher
[/Creatures]
[Sideboard]
1 Lightning Bolt
4 Burst Lightning
1 Infiltration Lens
1 Argentum Armor
4 Revoke Existence
4 Cunning Sparkmage
[/Sideboard]
[/cardlist]
I'm open on that final Sideboard slot, currently I'm suggesting Sparkmage but that may not be quite right.
As you can see, we are left with a pretty similar version of Boros! You may ask why I just spent over 3000 words building a stock Boros list, but the fact of the matter is that the fundamental assumptions of the format are changing. To just take an existing list for granted would be a grievous error, even if the finished product is similar. We've reconsidered the implications of equipment, made great use of Stoneforge Mystic, and we've done what we set out to do; build a deck that hits hard enough and fast enough to punish the untuned, unpolished decks that will come out of Scars of Mirrodin.
Assuming I make it to NYC in time for the TCG Player 5k, I will likely sleeve this deck up and attempt to battle with it. I hope this week's piece has given you not only a nice fast deck to beat people up with, but it also gives you an idea how to evaluate cards for both deck building and speculation. While I have not attempted to break new ground with this archetype, I will continue to innovate and brew with the new cards. Just as it's important to understand the context of a game, it is important to understand the context of a tournament or a deck, and in my experience, it is best to rely on true and tested archetypes when trying to compete in a new format. If you give the list a spin, please leave me a comment and let me know how it worked out for you!
