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Scars of Mirrodin – Full Set Analysis - Part 1

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Before we get to the meat of the article, I want to start with a note on metalcraft and infect. Metalcraft is a great mechanic, but it has one major problem for constructed – math. I could add more words, but here is a chart for you:

Probability of DRAWING three artifacts:

# artifacts T0 (%) T1 (%) T2 (%) T3 (%) T4 (%) T5 (%)
12 14 19 25 32 38 45
14 20 27 35 43 50 57
16 27 36 45 53 61 68
18 35 45 55 63 71 78
20 43 54 64 72 79 85
22 51 62 72 80 86 90
24 59 70 79 86 90 94
26 66 77 85 90 94 96
28 73 83 89 94 96 98

This chart only shows the probably of drawing three artifacts, it doesn't take into account whether those artifacts resolve, are sacrificed, or destroyed (all of which are concerns in the upcoming format). As you can see, the math is fairly daunting. To activate metalcraft early, you are going to need a very high artifact count.

As for infect, I feel like individual cards may end up being playable, but attacking for small increments of poison damage is not a strategy I feel is particularly viable, at least until the next set in the block is released. I just don't think there is enough to consistently get through 10 "damage," although equipment and pump spells may change that. I feel there are two main ways to utilize this strategy – UB with proliferate, or BG with pump spells. I think both of them leave you very vulnerable to both removal and counterspells, which I think will be a very important part of the upcoming format.

Now, with that said, on with the analysis (for Standard). I will divide each color into four groups – unplayable, role-player, fits into existing framework, creates/forces new frameworks. I will number these 1-4 respectively. I will then discuss each card I feel is playable. For the purposes of the article, these are what I consider the "existing" frameworks that survive the rotation:

#1: 3x Jace, the Mind Sculptor, 2x Jace Beleren, 3x Sun Titan

#2: 4x Goblin Guide

#3: 4x Eldrazi Monument

#4: 4x Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle, 3x Primeval Titan

#5: 4x Fauna Shaman, 4x Vengevine

#6: 4x Enclave Cryptologist, 4x Renegade Doppelganger, 4x Vengevine

#7: 4x Birds of Paradise, 4x Arbor Elf, 4x Lotus Cobra

#8: 4x Eldrazi Temple, 2x Eye of Ugin, 3x Primeval Titan, 1x Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, 1x Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre, 1x Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

White:

#1 – Abuna Acolyte, Loxodon Wayfarer, Razor Hippogriff, Salvage Scout, Seize the Initiative, Sunspear Shikari, Vigil of the Lost, Whitesun's Passage

#2 – Arrest, Auriok Edgewright, Auriok Sunchaser, Dispense Justice, Fulgent Distraction, Ghalma's Warden, Glimmerpoint Stag, Glint Hawk, Indomitable Archangel, Kemba, Kha Regent, Kemba's Skyguard, Leonin Arbiter, Myrsmith, Revoke Existance, Soul Parry, Sunblast Angel, True Conviction

#3 - Kemba, Kha Regent

#4 – Elspeth Tirel, Myrsmith, Tempered Steel

Now let's take a look at the cards in categories 2 and 4 in greater detail.

Auriok Edgewright, Auriok Sunchaser, Glint Hawk, Myrsmith – I feel like my earlier discussion on metalcraft covers these cards. They are aggressive cards that want you to play lots of artifacts, and if that is viable, then they will be good, if not, they will fall by the wayside. I personally think that the strategy is not viable, as even your "nut" draws are not that difficult to beat. Consider the following draw on the play:

T1: Memnite, Memnite, Memnite, Mox Opal, Plains, Steel Overseer.

T2: Plains, Tempered Steel, attack for 12.

T3: Kill them.

Seems powerful right? Assuming you live in magical christmasland, it is worth going for. Outside of that, I believe it's too vulnerable to disruption. If they have a Condemn for one of your T2 attackers, you can lose to a T3 DoJ. If they have Ratchet Bomb, you just lose. If they have two removal spells, there's a good chance you lose. Even as powerful as this draw is, there are so many different things that can go wrong with it, not to mention the fact that it takes up your entire opening hand. The draw gains some stability if you sub out the Steel Overseer for white metalcraft cards, but it is still extremely vulnerable to disruption. I don't think this kind of deck works well in T2, but I could be wrong.

Myrsmith could end up being her own deck though, once again almost mono-artifact. Letting you get a 1/1 off of each artifact you cast could be good enough, as fragile as she is.

Dispense Justice – Useful in control decks or the theoretical aggro-metalcraft mirror. Getting one dude might be good enough, but given that there will be regularly guys attacking into the later turns, getting two men on turn 7 or 8 seems very reasonable to set up.

Elspeth Tirel – She is fairly powerful in her own right, but I feel like she has to have a deck centered around her to bring out her full potential. I don't think she is as good as her previous version, but the ability to make 3 tokens at once makes her far better defensively. She also has an interesting interaction with Ajani's Pridemate and is a reasonable source of life gain for a more creature-oriented control deck. Her -5 is also a decent way for control players to clear the table. Still, I feel like she needs a tokens strategy to really take advantage of her.

Tempered Steel – If there is a mono-artifact deck centered around attacking with Memnites and Ornithopters, this and Steel Overseer will be an integral part of it.

Fulgent Distraction – More of a limited card, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that this might make the leap to the 60-card format. I feel it's very unlikely for this to see play, but creatures like Kor Duelist and Kor Outfitter exist, and thus it is possible for people to do some pretty broken things with equipment. I would keep this card in the back of my head in case some sort of really aggressive equipment-based deck develops, as unlikely as that is.

Ghalma's Warden – This might be playable if it always comes down as a 4 mana 4/6. A vanilla 4 mana 4/6 would definitely be a decent role-player for a mid-rangey white deck that could win in the air (Indomitable Archangel seems like a good flyer for that deck, not to mention existing ones like Emeria Angel). It also could be useful in some builds of mono-white control or UW control. Like the other metalcraft guys I think this is unlikely to actually be active on turn 4, and thus I don't like him, but it's something to keep in mind as the other sets are released. Its viability could easily change.

Glimmerpoint Stag – Venser exists, thus making any creature with a 187-ability better. While you'd probably normally just Venser the dude instead of the stag, using Venser on this guy allows you to trigger whatever your third card is on your opponent's turn, even if it is during his end step. It also protects your guy from your opponent's sorcery-speed removal. This is in addition to the fact that he'll let you re-buy any other 187 ability. The body he's attached too isn't irrelevant, so I could easily see this card making it in some midrange deck, probably a Rock-ish build.

Indomitable Archangel – basically everything I said for Ghalma's Warden holds true for this girl, only she's slightly more playable because she has a better body if you don't metalcraft. She also could be useful in a basically mono-artifact deck to protect your artifacts, and if such a deck emerges, she'll definitely see a good amount of play. The problem with this is that she doesn't protect herself and she's very vulnerable to removal. Add that to the fact that the mono-artifact deck doesn't exist at the moment, and I think she'll be sitting on the sidelines quite a bit for the next three months.

Kemba, Kha Regent – The fact that she can't realistically make a token until turn 5 turns me off to her. I think she's just too slow for 60 card formats, although she's probably okay in 100-card highlander formats. The only reasons she's here are that her ability is powerful enough that she's worth remembering and that she could be good in some mono-white Eldrazi Monument deck. The tools seem to be there to make an attempt worthwhile.

Kemba's Skyguard – You might want this card in the white weenie mirror. Probably not, but it might be enough.

Leonin Arbiter – Probably more useful in mana-tight eternal formats, but it is interesting to note how much this punishes fetchlands. The ramp decks will only be inconvenienced, because she is easy to remove and they'll probably have the extra mana lying around anyway. The only card in those decks she really affects is Primeval Titan.

Razor Hippogriff – probably unplayable at the moment, but with Venser around I am going to be very careful in dismissing anything with a 187 ability. Also, some random artifact could come along that lets you sac artifacts profitably, in which case this card gets better. Still, 99% sure this is unplayable, just thought it was worth mentioning.

Revoke Existence – I believe the applicability of this card is obvious.

Soul Parry – At minimum this is an interesting trick for aggro mirrors. It's probably better than Safe Passage in that respect. The fact that it prevents all damage and not just combat damage is worth noting.

Sunblast Angel – She's simply nuts. She's a wrath that leaves behind a body and she has excellent synergy with Gideon Jura. I think there will be many copies of her at top tables over the next year. If you are a control mage, pick up a couple copies. She'll be a good supplement to Day of Judgment for you.

True Conviction – Might replace Finest Hour/Sovereigns in a Mythic-style deck.

Blue

#1 – Bonds of Quicksilver, Darkslick Drake, Disperse, Dissipation Field, Lumengrid Drake, Quicksilver Gargantuan, Scrapdiver Serpent, Screeching Silcaw, Sky-Eel School, Twisted Image, Vault Skyward, Vedalken Certarch

#2 – Argent Sphinx, Halt Order, Neurok Invisimancer, Plated Seastrider, Riddlesmith, Steady Progress, Stoic Rebuttal, Thrummingbird, Trinket Mage, Turn Aside, Volition Reins

#3 -

#4 – Grand Architect, Inexorable Tide, Riddlesmith, Shape Anew

Argent Sphinx – I'm not really that high on this card. Sure it dodges sweepers, but unlike Jwar Isle it will never win a fight with a real creature. I suppose, once again, some mid-range aggro deck could want it as a defense against Wraths, but I really don't see it. I think Chapin is wrong about this card.

Grand Architect – This is just waiting to be busted in half. I have no idea how or in what format it will be broken, I just know that someone, somewhere, will. The card does too many things and is too powerful to not see some play. The card requires an entire deck built around it, but I think it will reward you.

Halt Order – Narrow, but if expensive artifacts become popular enough, this might just be good enough.

Inexorable Tide – This is a "build around me" card, the idea being to cast a lot of cheap spells that give counters, then proliferate the hell out of them. You probably kill them with poison. It's probably not viable, but it seems fun at worst, and is worth keeping in mind.

Neurok Invisimancer – Infect guys will like him. Otherwise, I think he's basically unplayable.

Plated Seastrider – If there's some sort of mono-blue control deck this guy will be on the short list of early drops. Not sure if I'd rather play him or Calcite Snapper. The 1 mana makes a big difference.

Riddlesmith – This could fit so many places. It dumps the artifacts in your graveyard, so pretty much every archetype can use it. If I were playing it, I'd want to be playing some sort of deck that pulled things out of my yard so I'd get card advantage out of it, but it's not bad just to filter.

Shape Anew – When they make a colored card that makes artifact tokens without requiring other artifacts I'll pay attention. There exist big beefy guys to Shape into, so I wouldn't forget about this card.

Steady Progress – This card is looks innocuous, but is pretty good in my opinion. I believe it is even playable in UW control.

Stoic RebuttalCancel just got an upgrade. Probably better in Extended than in T2, due to Fieldmist Borderpost.

Thrummingbird – if the UB poison/proliferate deck works, this will be an integral part of it.

Trinket Mage – We've seen him before; you all know he's awesome.

Turn Aside – Could be a good trick for aggro-control decks. The issue is that it doesn't stop abilities, just spells.

Volition Reins – The new Confiscate is way better than the old one and will see lots of play. Stealing everything from lands to planeswalkers and having them be untapped and ready to go makes the card much better, especially for control players. This and Sunblast Angel might bring back UW tapout.

Black

#1 – Blackcleave Goblin, Blistergrub, Corrupted Harvester, Dross Hopper, Exsanguinate, Flesh Allergy, Instill Infection, Moriok Reaver, Painful Quandry

#2 – Bleak Coven Vampires, Carnifex Demon, Contagious Nim, Fume Spitter, Geth, Lord of the Vault, Grasp of Darkness, Ichor Rats, Memoricide, Necrogen Scudder, Painsmith, Plague Stinger, Psychic Miasma, Relic Putrescence, Skinrender, Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon, Tainted Strike

#3 – Necrotic Ooze

#4 – Hand of the Praetors

Bleak Coven Vampires – My reservations on metalcraft apply to this guy, but he could be good in some mono-black deck with lots of artifacts. Phylactery Lich seems to be begging for that. I still think Malakir Bloodwitch is better 95% of the time, but who knows.

Carnifex Demon – Big fat efficient dude with a relevant ability means I have to keep an eye on him. He has stiff competition in the 6-drop slot though.

Contagious Nim, Ichor Rats, Plague Stinger, Tainted Strike – Aah, the infect cards. If there is an infect deck, these boys will probably show up. I think Plague Stinger and Ichor Rats are the better ones, but I think this is "not a deck" in the same way vampires was "not a deck." People will play it, but it will be distinctly Tier 2. Of course, once the next set comes out, that could change. It's worth nothing that Blackcleave Goblin exists so you don't randomly lose to it. It's a terrible card, but people will play it.

Fume Spitter – Worth keeping an eye on this card with proliferate as a mechanic. Also gives black the ability to "Ha Ha, dead elf" people like red.

Geth, Lord of the Vault – see Carnifex Demon.

Grasp of Darkness – This is a really solid removal spell that will see quite a lot of play over the next two years. A go-to kill spell for black-heavy decks, maybe even over Doom Blade.

Hand of the Praetors – I think the "infect lord" isn't good enough, since he is relatively expensive and also fragile, but lords of all sorts have a way of being surprisingly good. His use is fairly obvious, and only a pure infect deck will want him.

Memoricide – An awesome sideboard card. If you are using this card to get Jace 2.0, you're doing it wrong. If you are using it to take Pyromancer's Ascension, you're doing it right. It'll see play in extended as well.

Necrogen Scudder – If suicide black makes a comeback this card will be there. I normally wouldn't mention it, but Vampire Lacerator and Howling Banshee exist.

Necrotic Ooze – This card screams Dredgevine, and is overwhelmingly powerful to boot. The 4/3 body is basically a luxury, and I foresee people doing lots of stupid things with Fauna Shaman, Grindclock, Hedron Crab and this guy.

Painsmith – This is reminiscent of Glaze Fiend in a lot of ways, except that it can help other guys, which makes it a bit better. Some sort of bad mono-black aggro deck with a bunch of artifacts will want it.

Psychic Miasma – Not sure how good this discard spell is. You're unlikely to get card advantage out of it, but the fact that you are forcing them to discard a non-land spell is relevant. Distress saw play, so I see no reason why this couldn't see some play, probably in sideboards though.

Relic Putrescence – An effective sideboard for infect decks or a deck that proliferates a lot, otherwise, probably useless.

Skinrender – This card is pretty good in sixty card formats as well as forty. He'll generally kill a guy when he comes in, but if you use him on a larger guy it still shrinks them permanently. Being able to re-buy his 187 with Venser or Stag is interesting.

Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon – Many people will die to this guy over the next two years. I think he's the best of the new black six-drops, as he kills very quickly and by poison, so you can't heal the damage. The fact that he regenerates makes him a very resilient threat as well. He's one of the reasons I feel Baneslayer Angel gets better with Scars.

Red

#1 – Barrage Ogre, Bloodshot Trainee, Embersmith, Ferrovore, Flameborn Hellion, Molten Psyche, Ogre Geargrabber, Oxidda Daredevil, Scoria Elemental, Turn to Slag

#2 – Arc Trail, Assault Strobe, Blade-Tribe Berserkers, Cerebral Eruption, Galvanic Blast, Goblin Gaveleer, Hoard-Smelter Dragon, Kuldotha Rebirth, Melt Terrain, Oxidda Scrapmelter, Shatter, Spikeshot Elder, Tunnel Ignus, Vulshok Heartstoker

#3 – Koth of the Hammer, Kuldotha Phoenix

#4 – Furnace Celebration, Koth of the Hammer

Arc Trail – Awesome spell for "Ha Ha, dead elf"-ing people, which I think will be very important for the upcoming format. Beyond the normal "elves" there will also be Enclave Cryptologist and Fauna Shaman that also act as "elves" in the functional sense. Paskins would be proud of the efficiency with which this card kills pointy-eared green men.

Assault Strobe – This is kind of like Berserk, which I hear is a good card. I would definitely not be surprised to see this show up at top tables with players using this to make their Kiln Fiends or Plated Geopedes hit twice as hard.

Blade-Tribe Berserkers – My usual metalcraft disclaimer applies, but this guy really hits hard if he's triggered. That makes me not able to dismiss him off-hand. I mean, he hits REALLY hard.

Cerebral Eruption – This card seems fun, if not actually good. I have dreams of playing against Eldrazi Ramp, using Jace to reveal that they have Emrakul on top of their library, then playing this thing; probably a pipe dream, but fun to think about. The fact that TMS is in this format makes me think there's an off-chance it'll see play at some point.

Galvanic Blast – If it's shock, you don't want it. If it's a one-mana flame javelin, sign me up.

Goblin Gaveleer – A reasonable 1-drop considering all the cheap equipment we have – Adventuring Gear, Trusty Machete, Darksteel Axe, Infiltration Lens, etc.

Furnace Celebration – I really want this card to be good, but it's definitely a "build around me" card and probably a bad one. You'd probably have to be some BR deck with like Act of Treason and Bloodthrone Vampire and that kind of nonsense. There could be a deck there, I dunno. Maybe it'll even run Bazaar Trader. That would be genuinely awesome. It is interesting to note it turns fetchlands into damage.

Hoard-Smelter Dragon – I wish he had haste. As is, I think Hellkite Charger is a better dragon, if the aggressive red deck even wants a dragon. Mana ramp decks might want this guy as a big massive flyer, but I doubt it. His ability seems just a tad too expensive.

Koth of the Hammer – I think Koth will be beating many people's faces in with his metal-encrusted fists over the course of the next year or so. Goblin Guide is his best friend, his ultimate is reasonable to get to, and he makes a 4/4 haste the turn he comes in. There can be no two opinions about this card. It is absolutely nuts.

He slots very well on the top end of mono-red, but he also can partner up with Valakut, Inferno Titan, and/or Destructive Force to produce some truly terrifying turns. People will try to use him to bring back Big Red style decks, but I think they will ultimately fail, due to the lack of something to fulfill Arc-Slogger's role. Without an Arc-Slogger I don't feel Big Red is viable, and I don't see a comparable creature that is as board-dominating that can come down as quickly. Still, Goblin Guide wants to be his friend, and I believe that will be a very profitable relationship.

Kuldotha Phoenix – The aggressive red deck could use this guy, but I think it's really best to dump him into the yard and reanimate him. Thus, I'm thinking that he'll be good in some sort of more artifact-based deck with Grindclock.

Kuldotha Rebirth – I can't frown at 3 power for 1 mana, although it makes red weenies, which means it is for aggro decks or goblins, neither of which I feel very comfortable running a lot of cheap artifacts in. The design tension of this card is the same as that with metalcraft. It wants cheap artifacts in a deck I'm not sure wants a bunch of cheap artifacts. Still, it is 3 power for 1 mana.

Melt Terrain Molten Rain's bigger, slower brother. Could see play, worth noting at least.

Oxidda Scrapmelter – I think Manic Vandal is better 99% of the time, but if you are using Liquimetal Coating as a "turn my stuff into vindicate" permanent, the bigger body on this guy could be relevant.

Shatter – Obv.

Spikeshot Elder – Aahh, red one drops, my favorite type of creature. This one has a very good ability to boot. He combos well with equipment like Adventuring Gear and Trusty Machete, making him a natural fit next to Goblin Gaveleer. I believe I see a red deck.

Tunnel Ignus – Ramp decks will loath the existence of this card. Now they have to run real removal! The heresy!

Vulshok Heartstoker – It's like Staggershock on a stick, a solid 3-drop for T2 sligh.

Green

#1 – Alpha Tyrranax, Blunt the Assault, Copperhorn Scout, Engulfing Slagwurm, Liege of the Tangle, Lifesmith, Molder Beast, Tangle Angler, Untamed Might, Wing Puncture,

#2 – Acid Web Spider, Asceticism, Bellowing Tanglewurm, Blight Mamba, Carapace Forger, Carrion Call, Cystbearer, Ezuri's Archers, Ezuri's Brigade, Putrefax, Slice in Twain, Tel-Jilad Defiance, Tel-Jilad Fallen, Viridian Revel, Withstand Death

#3 – Ezuri, Renegade Leader

#4 – Genesis Wave

Acid Web SpiderAcidic Slime is probably better 99% of the time, but this thing does have a much bigger body if all you care about is equipment.

Asceticism – More for 100 card highlander formats and casual than for T2, but the effect is powerful; I just feel this is overcosted by about 2 mana.

Bellowing Tanglewurm – This card doesn't look like much at first glance and I really don't foresee it going anywhere, but the effect is good enough that I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. Obviously it is only good in mono-green or nearly mono green, but giving your entire team evasion in addition to a relevant body is something that can't be ignored. Perhaps there is a mono-green aggro deck that wants it.

Blight Mamba, Carrion Call, Cystbearer, Putrefax, Tel-Jilad Fallen – Aah, the green infect guys. The same things I said about the black infect guys applies only I am far more optimistic about this crew, mainly because they are just more efficient creatures. The problem with infect guys for constructed is that they are just too inefficient. These guys aren't exactly efficient, but they are close enough to the power curve that it might be good enough. In particular Blight Mamba, Cystbearer, and Putrefax seem good.

Carapace Forger, Ezuri's Brigade – The usual metalcraft disclaimer applies, but I think that the 4-drop might actually be reasonable. It's late enough that you might have metalcraft and it's big enough that it can't be ignored. I doubt the 2-drop is any good, just like the white guys.

Ezuri, Renegade Leader – Elf decks everywhere rejoice. Maybe mono-green monument makes a comeback with this guy.

Ezuri's Archers – A useful sideboard card to keep in mind, especially for Extended, given the presence of Faeries.

Genesis Wave – This card is extremely powerful if you cast it for any decent X (like >4). In many respects I see this like Warp World, a big expensive sorcery that you design your deck around. If you aren't winning the game when you cast this you are probably doing it wrong. In that sense, I think it will share a fate with Warp World and be destined to casual tables, but it's a fun card. The presence of Mana Leak makes this card so much worse.

Slice in TwainNaturalize is probably better 95% of the time, but for those who don't need the speed, this is useful to keep in mind.

Tel-Jilad Defiance – A solid sideboard card to keep in mind. The effect is not negligible and it's a cantrip, which alone almost makes it worth the two mana you pay.

Viridian Revel – Similar to Compost, I believe it will be used similarly, although I suppose an artifact deck could also play this as a card advantage engine.

Withstand Death – Once again another sideboard card. I think Vines of Vastwood will do this card's job most of the time, but it is worth noting that this saves relevant guys from Day of Judgment. Useful for Eldrazi Monument decks and Infect decks primarily, I think.

Check back tomorrow for part 2 of this review!

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