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Magic is a game of imperfect information. From the beginning of the game, your opponent has a number of cards available to him that will designate his gameplay for the majority of the game. Quite a bit of high level thought goes into reading your opponent, deducing what he has in his hand and playing around tricks accordingly. So, I pose this question to you: "Why not just pay a blue mana and spend a card and just find out for sure?"
The Telepathy Effect
One of the basic theories in poker, called 'Sklansky's Basic Theorem of Poker' (go figure), states that given a game of Texas Hold 'Em, you gain value every time you play your cards in the way you would given perfect information about your opponents' hands (perfect play) and your opponents gain value every time you play cards in such a way that that different from the optimal. You can see where I'm going with this, right? I will define the Telepathy Effect as something similar:
The Telepathy Effect is the disadvantage a player suffers when he or she makes a decision that is different from the decision he or she would have made if they had perfect information about the cards available to your opponent. Conversely, it also applies to the advantage gained when your opponent makes decisions that are different from those he would make given perfect knowledge about your hand.
So what's the moral here? Playing around tricks gains you an advantage, but only if they actually have them. If they don't, then your opponent gains some advantage. The way to gain this advantage comes in reading your opponent. The closer you play to what it would be like if you had Telepathy in play, the more advantage you get.
Situational Advantage
One of my favorite cards to play with in Odyssey limited was Peek. I loved the combination of a cantrip and the information advantage that the card gives you. It was an excellent late game topdeck, allowing you to accurately assess your lines of attack while not costing a card. The examples are pretty simple:
Say we're playing a triple Zendikar draft, and your opponent has 20 life and 3 cards in hand with WWUUU mana available. We have four vanilla 2/1 creatures. Our options boil down much attack with all our creatures, some of our creatures, or pass the turn. Given that we know that our opponent has Arrow Volley Trap in his deck, what is the play? Well, if it's in his hand, we attack with as few of the creatures as we can to force him to use it. If it isn't in his hand you just attack with all your creatures. What happens if you attack with two creatures and he doesn't play it? Do you assume he doesn't have it and attack with all four of your creatures? That opens you up to getting blown out if he was holding onto the trap for more value. Often, the correct play is to keep attacking with a few creatures, just in case he does have it. However, by buying into the belief that he does have it, you're losing damage per turn. Damage that could be gained by accurately knowing the contents of your opponents hand.
What if you are attacked by a 3/3 into your two 2/2s, given that your opponent is playing at least one Giant Growth? Do you double block and open yourself to getting blown out? Or do you take three damage that you might not have to? The safe thing to do is often to take the three and attack back for four, but what if your opponent casts another 3/3 after that?
Take an example from Zendikar block, U/W mirror match. What happens when your opponent is holding up UUUU and you want to resolve your Luminarch Ascension? Do you put your opponent on a Cancel and a Spell Pierce? Should you bait with another spell and then cast the Ascension? That play might still get you caught by the Spell Pierce. If you wait a turn, your opponent gains momentum and you lose a turn of quest counters. Often you want to play around any counters a control opponent has so they don't get to untap into a clean board to resolve their own threat.
The point I am trying to make is that there is a real value associated with information. I find that in an M10 draft, its perfectly acceptable to maindeck a Telepathy because the information you gain translates to real card and momentum advantage. The ability to play with near perfect information for the entirety of the game can often be worth upwards of two or three cards. A Peek at the appropriate time costs no cards and a small amount of mana, but can gain significant advantage.
Cards in hand aren't the only unknown piece of information that can gain you advantage. In a similar vein in the last examples, if you knew the top card of your library (using Sphinx of Jwar Isle for example), you might be able to play more effectively than if you did not know the top card of your library. Every mage has been in a situation where he has been faced with a situation requiring him to decide between attacking and hoping to topdeck a burn spell or trading damage potential for time by chump blocking. The decision becomes quite a bit clearer when you know if that burn spell rests on top of your deck. You use the exact amount of time appropriate to maximize your chances of winning the game.
Knowledge should be treated as another resource in Magic, just like cards, tempo or momentum. You can obtain this resource by attempting to read your opponent, and most good players are extremely skilled at this. However, even they don't get it right all the time, and players such as myself could use the boost. Cards like Telepathy make perfectly fine 23rd cards in limited decks, and if Opt can see constructed play, I believe Peek can too. The knowledge aspect of Magic is very rarely talked about, and I believe it to be a real resource that should be considered when evaluating cards.
Feel free to email me questions or post a comment!
