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A little background on the deck; I've been wanting to play some sort of Prot. Bear heavy aggro deck for a long time, and since I've been such a huge proponent of Jund lately, I've been giving a lot of thought to the types of scenarios that give my favorite deck real, honest trouble. Jund is not an especially fast deck on average. It can have quick draws but by and large, it is not nearly fast enough to be called a true Aggro deck. As I've discussed already, you can beat Jund by going over the top of their curve and controlling the game, or you can try to out-race them like mono-red does. I wanted the latter option without playing a deck full of cards that lose to Kor Firewalker and can also bring the heat against the rest of the field.
I didn't want the cards to be too techy. Meddling Mage was tempting, but was not often found in the red zone. Thus I switched over to more First Strikers and Prot Bears. The idea is to gum up combat as badly as possible by using first strike, protection, removal and Brave the Elements. Ajani Goldmane is a superb finisher. He ensures you can alpha strike every turn and leave guys on defense to protect the Planeswalker. Still, he is at the top end of the curve and not a threat himself so he is only a 2-of. This is, in essence, a White Weenie deck with blue cards.
[cardlist]3 Path to Exile
3 Brave the Elements
2 Permafrost Trap
2 Sigil of Distinction
2 Ajani Goldmane
4 Aven Mimeomancer
4 Kor Firewalker
4 Kor Skyfisher
4 White Knight
4 Vedalken Outlander
4 Knight of the White Orchid
8 Plains
1 Island
4 Fieldmist Borderpost
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
3 Halimar Depths[/cardlist]
The deck has no specific sideboard right now. Cards being tossed around are Day of Judgment, Harm's Way, Celestial Purge and Baneslayer Angel. Until the deck knows precisely what role it wishes to play in its matchups, the SB can be constructed to do many diverse things. Blue and White are very deep right now.
Many will ask "why not play WW instead"? You gain a lot of depth by playing the Blue splash, and the effect on your mana base is minimal. Knight of the White Orchid smooths your mana, and despite the high ETB Tapped land count, you can often curve out brilliantly on the back of Kor Skyfisher and the Knight. Celestial Colonnade would be fine as just another dual land, but the fact that it goes to the skies in the later turns takes the deck to another level. Halimar Depths surprised me as a standout card. I could cut another, but it's so powerful in this sort of deck. What you lose from its ETB cost, you gain in efficiency the following turns.
It showed me that I needed the 24 threats, over the 20 I had been using
I ran the deck for hours upon hours at a friend's house, against whatever random decks we could find. Many were not Tier 1, but they helped me more than, say, Goldfishing would have. It showed me that I needed the 24 threats, over the 20 I had been using, and proved that although Permafrost Trap is spectacular most of the time, it will likely be relegated to the sideboard after further testing. After adjusting the deck to accomodate Knight of the White Orchid and Borderpost, I ran it up against two players playing Jund builds. Both know their decks very well and put up a good fight. My notes on the matches get more detailed towards the end.
The first game has me drawing threats and curving out while he doesn't have many plays. I path a Putrid Leech that is blocking my guys on the ground and get him for almost half his life total. The following turn, Kor Skyfisher makes my 4th mana and lets me finish the curve and deal lethal.
(1-0)
In the second game, I lose because I see one threat all game and he has more than one threat. He wins the race, obviously. This game showed me how dangerous it can be to keep a 1-threat hand. Never do it unless you're on 5 cards.
(1-1)
Game three was the first game I played with Knight of the White Orchid. I kept a threat-light hand again (because I apparently don't learn) and get in a lot of damage with White Knight. Ajani Goldmane keeps Knight relevant and Knight keeps Ajani safe. They get in enough damage that a Colonnade starts acting like a Raging Ravine with my Planeswalker and I finish him off without any major resistance.
(2-1)
The 4th game saw me mulligan to 5. Halimar Depths fixes up an awkward 5 card hand, but I never draw a threat beyond a Vedalken Outlander. A Putrid Leech cleans up the mess and I'm dead.
(2-2)
Game 5 was a good game for UW Aggro. Knight of the White Orchid finally showed up, and he looked awkward at first. I lose a bit of tempo with ETB Tapped lands but Knight makes up for it. He accelerates me into tons of threats, and an Ajani Goldmane puts away the game quickly.
(3-2)
I looked just like a White Weenie deck until Celestial Colonnade came over the top
Game 6 I mulligan to 6 and curve out using White Knight, Kor Skyfisher enabling a Knight of the White Orchid. He shuts me down for a turn with Master of the Wild Hunt, but I can swing through it since he's low enough. I lose a Firewalker to trade damage, but replace it with a 2nd White Knight and another Kor Skyfisher. I looked just like a White Weenie deck until Celestial Colonnade came over the top and finished the game with Skyfishers on either side. Noteworthy is the fact that I beat two Bloodbraid Elf into gas. He was on the defensive the whole game and could never turn the tempo on me. Took the game with superior threat density.
(4-2)
I keep a good hand in Game 7, but it is a 6-carder in effect because of the double Ajani Goldmane. My first Kor Firewalker gets Pulsed, my second keeps back a Bloodbraid Elf, which only cascades into Explore. Kor Skyfisher fixes my mana again and lets me cast a Vedalken Outlander. The Skyfisher eats a Bolt, but I have Firewalker Tempo locked down. I draw another Skyfisher which gives me the 4th mana for a third Kor Firewalker. That ends the game in UW's favor.
(5-2)
In the 8th game, he goes down to 6 cards while I keep a hand with 4 assorted Knights, 2 plains and a Sigil of Distinction. I lose 2 Knights to Blightning, and the other 2 are barely enough to get past his Master of the Wild Hunt, thanks to Sigil of Distinction. Unfortunately, he resolves 3 Siege-Gang Commander and I lose.
(5-3)
Game 9 was cathartic. My Vedalken Outlander and White Knight out-tempo his Sprouting Thrinax, while Aven Mimeomancer demands an instantaneous Bolt. A Sigil takes the Vedalken Outlander all the way without any removal interfering.
(6-3)
Game 10 is equally fun. UW draws Knight of the White Orchid in a timely manner and gives me an extra mana to Path to Exile his Master of the Wild Hunt. He can't handle my Firewalker and Knight backed up by Ajani Goldmane-imposed Vigilance and the bad guy falls over dead.
(7-3)
Game 11 was a heartbreaker. I made a 3rd turn Kor Firewalker and followed on the next turn with a Kor Skyfisher, which once again made my 4th mana and a Vedalken Outlander. He finds a Master of the Wild Hunt, who eats a Path. Kor Firewalker does a few points and dies to Maelstrom Pulse. He plays a Putrid Leech which lets me tap his board with Permafrost Trap. I have a Brave the Elements but no mana to use it. I kill him if he lets me untap, but he gets a free Bolt off Bloodbraid Elf to wax my Aven Mimeomancer. White Knight turns up, but my Skyfisher is shot out by another Bolt. A Blightning combines with a Siege-Gang and Master of the Wild Hunt to crush my dreams of winning this game. A topdecked Brave the Elements can't save enough of my team from his Goblins. His Master of the Wild Hunt locks out the game with me on 5 and him on 6.
(7-4)
Kor Firewalker is 3/1 and flies. His Bloodbraid Elf into Sprouting Thrinax turns on Permafrost Trap, as scripted. With my newfound time to race, I put a Sigil of Distrinction on a White Knight to make him a 6/6. His second Bloodbraid hits another Sprouting Thrinax, which is not really relevant. I try to move Sigil around to get more value, but he kills my target and the Sigil stays on the White Knight. The Knight is now acting as an Abyss, eating a creature a turn on his side of the board. I find another White Knight and a Vedalken Outlander, while another Trap gives me the time to kill him with Ajani Goldmane, which I found off of a Halimar Depths.
(8-4)
The last game was another frustrating one. My White Knight squares off against Sprouting Thrinax, which can race due to me finding a second Knight. He finds another Thrinax while I find a Kor Skyfisher and remain stuck on 2 mana. The Thrinaxes start to smash me for 6, then I have to path a Siege-Gang Commander. I have to leave back my attackers to stabilize, holding a Brave the Elements to set up potential bad blocks. Instead of just attacking, he finds a Siege-Gang Commander, which forces me to burn the two Brave the Elements I've been holding forever. I lose most of my board to Siege-Gang attrition and he plays yet another Putrid Leech. My White Knight topdeck is helping to hold off one creature a turn, but a Halimar Depths shows me a Kor Firewalker and a Knight of the White Orchid. My Kor Skyfisher, which survived the Siege-Gang carnage, finally dies to a pulse and I lose to Siege-Gang Commander yet again.
(8-5)
I'm very happy with this record. I think the Jund players learned more about how to beat the deck as it got later, but my own comfort level was increasing as well. The deck is very technical as far as the way it needs to be played. You need to play to the odds every time, and that usually means playing the Prot Red bears first. Knowing when to race and when to defend is key too, but Brave the Elements can often give you an "I Win" button when you otherwise would have had none.
The majority of Jund's cards just interact poorly with our deck, but Siege-Gang Commander and Master of the Wild Hunt both stop our plans in our tracks. A good sideboard card needs to be found to beat both cards, and it is one of the main reasons we're considering Day of Judgment in the board. The blue splash has been working out quite well, and is nowhere near as detrimental to the mana base as you might think. Kor Skyfisher and Knight of the White Orchid help a great deal in smoothing out the mana and the deck mainly runs like a White Weenie deck with tricks.
The next stage in developing this deck is playing the rest of the field. I'm still not sold on this decks' ability to beat Jund just by winning about 60% of its preboard games. Regardless, it has the speed to race almost every deck in the format. The RDW/Mono Red/RB Burn lists might give us a some more free wins, as 8 maindeck prot bears and 12 maindeck first strikers is usually Game Over. Just save Path to Exile for Hell's Thunder and you'll be OK. You don't even give them value on Quenchable Fire!
Vampires looks good on paper, but Malakir Bloodwitch post-board is mean. If you anticipate a LOT of Vamps, you can consider boarding Mind Control, although as a 5-drop it seems awful. You could also run Vapor Snare to reuse Halimar Depths and make the mana work better. Black Night helps, early drops help, but Vampire Nighthawk really, really sucks for you. Resolving Ajani Goldmane on a crowded board helps an awful lot. You have to be careful that they don't out-race you with Tendrils, but again, Prot Bears and First Strike Bears do a lot of heavy lifting. Harm's Way can be a really great card against them too, since it kills Nighthawk outright and can muddle combat sufficiently.
Mythic seems like a pretty bad matchup, since Path to Exile is stretched very thin. Their guys are all bigger, and your only hope is a bad draw by them and a lot of Ajani action by you. Permafrost Trap is an all-star here, as is Day of Judgment. You can shift gears to a Control deck against Mythic post-board.
If I had to pick one deck to have a poor game 1 against, it would be Mythic. The deck is not hard to beat, if you know you need to beat it. I'm happy to concede 60+% of my preboard games to Mythic, but if that means I have a favorable matchup against Jund, then I will gladly devote more sideboard slots to the Mythic matchup. You should have an advantage over regular White Weenie decks out of the Board, but they might be too big for you to handle. WW hasn't been performing well since San Diego, and I wouldn't board for the matchup unless other cards have incidental value.
There are a lot of cards we considered when building this particular evolution of W/u Weenie, such as Sleep, Kor Hookmaster, a Stoneforge package, Elspeth, Jace, Sejiri Steppe, Soaring Seacliffs, Honor of the Pure, Green Cards, Red Cards, and Harm's Way. All were cut for various reasons, but overall the tempo of the deck feels correct. In this deck you do not have room for Ajani Goldmane and Honor of the Pure, and the Vigilance does more than the permanence of the enchantment.
If I had to make any changes to this list going forward, I would try to move all the Permafrost Trap to the sideboard and try to increase my threat density. 24 threats is about right, but I want to see how much better it plays with 25 or 26. I also want more spot removal, and unfortunately the only other white 1-cost spell I want to play is Harm's Way. The Permafrost Trap main deck have been exceptionally good, but paying 4 for them is much worse than paying 1.
Overall, the deck is a traditional metagame deck. The protection creatures are pseudo-evasive and pseudo-shrouded, and the first strike makes combat dangerous. Backing it all up with Brave the Elements gives the deck resilience and the ability to race even the fastest decks. I'd strongly recommend giving it a whirl in your testing. I haven't played enough matches with the deck to play it over Jund at the Chicago Midwest Masters, but as the week pans out, I may try it. The deck is harder to play than it looks, so if you like the list, start practicing now and leave me some feedback in the comments!
Hope to be back with some more financial news soon! Rise of the Eldrazi spoiler season is starting, so we'll have that covered as it breaks.
Update: Decklist modified, changed Path to Exile and Brave the Elements to 3x rather than 4x
