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Five Mythic Championship IV Predictions


It's Mythic Championship time and that means it's also Predictions time! As has become tradition here on CoolStuffInc.com, I am here on the eve of the Mythic Championship with my big five predictions for how the event is going to go. With Modern Horizons giving the format a huge shakeup as well as the recent Bridge from Below banning, things are going to be wild.

Even cooler is that I am currently in Barcelona as you're reading this, looking to make my own mark on the predictions! Any and all accusations of fixing these predictions can be sent to my editor. Let's get started:

Prediction One: There Will Be At Least 40 Total Graveyard Hate Cards In Top 8

Look, I get it. Bridge from Below got banned as big papa Wizards of the Coast came down to save us from the graveyard monster it had created when it printed Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in Modern Horizons. So all is back to normal right?

Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis


Hogaak is still a really messed up Magic card, even without the ability to mill over your entire deck and your opponent's entire deck in concert with Alter of Dementia. The deck becomes almost entirely one dimensional post-banning, but the dimension of "put 15 power into play on turn two" is a pretty damn good plan A.

MPL member Piotr Glogowski ran a perfect 12-0 record through the weekend Magic Online Modern challenge last weekend, putting everyone who didn't already know on notice that the Gak hasn't gone anywhere. Anyone who is going to do well at this Mythic Championship will be well aware of the decks power, and whether they try to beat Hogaak or just play it themselves they will be packing the appropriate amount of graveyard hate to keep the deck in check.

This is no time to skimp on graveyard hate, and those who don't will be rewarded.

Prediction Two: No Player Will Have A Perfect 10-0 Record In Constructed

Modern is a wild world.

The dream for any Mythic Championship or Pro Tour is that some team finds a completely unexpected deck, breaks the format, and runs away with the event totally blindsiding the competition. The thing is, that almost never happens anymore. Modern has been a multi-headed beast for a long time, and there are so many angles and aspects to the format that it's almost impossible to perfectly predict what will happen. Furthermore, the fail rates and raw power of many decks means that sometimes upsets will happen regardless of how a matchup looks on paper.

Maybe you've got the expected metagame on lockdown and perfectly tuned your deck for the top six decks in the field, only to end up playing against Bogles or Burn. While at a high level event there will be a much higher concentration of the better decks in the format, Modern is the "play what you know" format and sometimes what your opponent knows is exactly what's good against you.

As such, I doubt there will be any dominance in Barcelona. No player will run the Modern tables.

Prediction Three: Jund Will Be Among The Top Four Most Played Decks

What if I told you that Jund was one of the best decks in Modern right now? Add this to the fact that higher level players tend to love fair decks, especially in Modern, and we're looking at a resurgence of the poster child for "fair" in Modern. And what's the impetus for this Jund resurgence?

Wrenn and Six

Wrenn and Six is a hell of a card.

If I told you there was a planeswalker that plused to gain card advantage, minused to kill creatures (and could do so more than once and still be alive), and went immediately up to four loyalty when it entered the battlefield I'd imagine you'd be interested. Now what if I told you it cost only two mana?

Wrenn and Six is the second two-mana planeswalker ever printed. They were really really (really) safe with the first one, but have held nothing back the second time around. Wrenn and Six is already turning Legacy upside down, and while Modern doesn't have Wasteland it does have many other great ways to use Wrenn and Six. And frankly, just drawing extra lands and cards to discard to Liliana of the Veil is often enough.

Wrenn and Six is the real deal, and Jund is the current beneficiary.

Prediction Four: At Least Half Of The 6-0 Drafters Will Make Top 8

Modern Horizons Limited is an extremely deep and challenging draft format. There are plenty of draftable archetypes, but they aren't locked on rails like some other synergy-based formats. There's a huge amount of crossover among archetypes and overall strategies, making the draft and deck-build a challenging but rewarding exercise. The players who put in the work will be amply rewarded.

With Modern being such a wildcard and Modern Horizons draft being so skill intensive, I have no problem predicting that at least half of the players who manage a perfect record in the draft portion will be able to parley that into a Top 8 berth. The players who run those 6-0s will be very skilled, and as long as they can come out just a little better than average in Modern that should be good enough to get there.

Prediction Five: Izzet Phoenix Will Underperform With A Sub-50% Win Rate

Izzet Phoenix has been /the/ deck in Modern for a while now. The deck is essentially fair with a number of great interactive elements, but also presents the possible explosive potential of multiple Arclight Phoenixes attacking on turn two or a flipped Awoken Horror attack on turn three. That raw power is necessary to compete in Modern; add that to the fact that the deck is so consistent and interactive and it's not hard to see why it's so popular.

However, Izzet Phoenix tends to struggle against Chalice of the Void and good removal for Thing in the Ice backed by graveyard hate. When decks are packing cards like Fatal Push then Thing in the Ice starts to look unimpressive, and if they can keep your Arclight Phoenix in check you become extremely reliant on Aria of Flame to actually win games.

With Jund and Eldrazi Tron looking to be very popular and tough matchups like Hogaak and Grixis Urza looming, Izzet Phoenix does not look poised for a great weekend.

Modern Across The Pond

I am writing this sitting at the airport waiting to board my flight to Barcelona and I'm pretty amped to battle. I am strongly considering a Modern Goblins list very similar to last week's video and am hoping I pull the trigger.

How will I do?

How will the predictions turn out?

We shall see!

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