A Brief Bit of History

It has been about five months since that fateful day back in September, when a Commander banning announcement shook the Magic community. Players and stores alike, holding $100s and $1,000s worth of these cards suddenly saw their competitive Commander decks lose a powerful game piece. According to the announcement website, these changes were all in the spirit of "slower pace of game than traditional formats."

Players were vocal in their frustrations. In fact, just one week after these bannings, Wizards of the Coast announced they were stepping in and taking over the Commander format.

Fast forward to about a week ago, and Wizards made their first official announcement relating to a restructuring of the Commander format. This bracket system is an attempt to organize gameplay into five different buckets based on deck power level and the competitive nature of each player's deck.

Reaction to the News

I saw numerous posts on social media, sharing this new approach taken by Wizards of the Coast. I didn't really see too many denouncements of the system, although I didn't necessarily see players applauding it either. I suspect, when it comes to how these brackets will impact gameplay, the jury is still out. This is one of those "try it and see what happens" scenarios.

The finance side of the market did not make such a passive response. In fact, within 48 hours of this announcement, market speculators began scooping up copies of cards in anticipation of potential unbanning.

Why did players feel this bracket system would lead to unbannings? The implementation of a "Game Changers" list, encompassing cards that players can only play many of if they're playing in an optimized or competitive game of Commander, opens the door for shakeups in what needs to be unbanned and what can move to this list. Speculators quickly honed in on this one paragraph from the official announcement, declaring that unbans were being considered for an April announcement.

The text doesn't even guarantee an unbanning. Yet, this verbiage is all it took to catalyze rampant buying action of key cards across the board.

The Obvious Movers and Shakers

It's no surprise that the cards banned back in September were the first ones targeted upon release of the February announcement from Wizards of the Coast. According to TCGplayer's analytics, 136 copies of Commander Legends Jeweled Lotuses sold between February 10th and February 12th. Leading up to then, the average sales for a three-day window was typically a few to a dozen copies. The announcement caused a 10x spike in volume, which was matched with a doubling of market price--from around $27 to around $60!

Mana Crypt also became an obvious speculative target. Despite there being absolutely no guarantee Mana Crypt sees unbanning in April, nearly 50 copies of Eternal Masters copies sold in the same three-day period. This moved the market price from an all-time low around $50 up to about $67--not as significant a jump as Jeweled Lotus, but still noteworthy.

Other printings of Mana Crypt also moved higher in step, though the amount they jumped depends on their base price to begin with. Newer and less expensive printings naturally saw higher buying volume then the rarer and more obscure versions of Mana Crypt. For example, only about a dozen copies of the Book Promo sold during that same date span in mid-February.

The third card that moved most noticeably is Dockside Extortionist, another victim of the September Commander bannings. Percentage wise, this card jumped the most in price in response to the announcement.

Around 110 copies of the Commander 2019 printing of Dockside Extortionist sold between February 11th and February 13th, driving the market price from a low of $11 to well over $30! The card more than tripled in price, though it's worth noting that the card is still far cheaper than it was before September's banning.

Incidentally, Nadu, Winged Wisdom also saw a noticeable jump in sales volume in response to the recent Commander bracket announcement. However, since the card was printed relatively recently and in such high volume, its price hasn't really seen an increase.

Non-obvious Unbanning Considerations

In addition to the 25 Conspiracy cards, 9 ante cards, and the racially and culturally offensive cards, there are about 50 cards currently on Commander's banned list. The list ranges from card-flipping dexterity cards such as Chaos Orb and Falling Star, to eight of the Power 9 (sans Timetwister), to cards like Biorhythm and Yawgmoth's Bargain, and everything in between.

In other words, the banned list is quite diverse. Only Wizards of the Coast knows exactly what may see unbanning come April, if anything. It is this writer's personal belief that the newly created Game Changer list gives Wizards a tool to unban cards safely without completely uprooting day-to-day, fun games of Commander.

With that being said, would Mana Crypt, Dockside Extortionist, and Jeweled Lotus be the first cards that come to mind as safe to unban? I'm not so sure about that. The Commander rules committee gave a fairly extensive explanation for why they banned these cards, and this decision was certainly not taken lightly given the financial impact the bannings had on the secondary market. While recency bias causes us to think of Mana Crypt, Jeweled Lotus, and Dockside Extortionist first, the reality is that there are other cards that may seem safer to unban.

Disclaimer: I don't claim to be a Commander expert--these are merely my opinions and observations of the market.

I noticed that Hullbreacher's price increased appreciably over the past week, with over 100 copies selling during that timeframe.

The Merfolk Pirate is currently on the Commander banned list, likely due to its massive synergies with "draw seven" cards like Wheel of Fortune and Memory Jar. With the advent of Commander brackets and Game Changers, I could envision this card becoming unbanned and placed on the Game Changer list. It seems that Wizards of the Coast is more concerned with two-card infinite combos; synergistic two-card combos that aren't infinite may not be as problematic in their eyes.

Another card that has seen market movement since last week's announcement is Primeval Titan.

This powerful 6/6 creature can take over a game if left unchecked, with its ability to both ramp players and help them tutor up their most powerful lands (Dark Depths and Thespian's Stage, anyone?). Is that ban-worthy given the new bracket system, however? Speculators don't think so, which is why dozens of copies of this card have sold across its multiple printings over the past week. This one's market price movement has been modest thus far, but it's difficult to ignore the jump in volume. Wizards of the Coast loves games where attacking is key to victory, and Primeval Titan certainly aligns well with that strategy. This is one that wouldn't surprise me to see an unbanning in the coming months.

Another card on speculator's radar is Panoptic Mirror, which also saw a bit of price action since the bracket announcement.

I'm not so sure this card is so safe to unban. Its power level cannot be denied, but I also think it can leave to some very unfun games of Magic depending on what's imprinted on the card. Some instants and sorceries can be problematic to begin with, but enabling players to cast those dominant spells every single turn may be a bit too much. Granted, this is a 5 mana artifact, making it quite fragile and easily disrupted. But all it takes is a player to imprint Armageddon and survive one turn cycle and you suddenly have a game where no one has fun. Is that OK for CEDH players? Possibly. I guess time will tell on this one.

The last market mover I want to touch on is Sylvan Primordial, another banned Commander card which saw a significant jump in speculative buying last week.

To be honest, I've never even heard of this card until I browsed the Commander banned list and saw it listed. The card has raw power, but I suspect it must have some synergy with certain strategies that pushes it over the edge. Still, a 7 mana creature that doesn't immediately win the game when cast? I suppose it can blow up opponents' lands, while simultaneously ramping you in the process. Is this too much for a game of CEDH? I'd like to see this card in action and placed on the Game Changer list to see if it becomes problematic. My gut says this one could be safe to unban, and market speculators must agree, hence why over 200 copies have sold on TCGplayer just this past week!

Wrapping It Up and a Couple Honorable Mentions

I tried to focus on cards that have been moving in price already due to Commander unbanning speculation. Mana Crypt, Jeweled Lotus, and Dockside Extortionist are the most obvious because they were most recently banned. However, there are a number of other cards on Commander's banned list that speculators have been buying up in anticipation of a potential unbanning come April.

I'd like to throw out a couple wild ideas that haven't been targeted as much by buyers just yet: Coalition Victory and Biorhythm:

Are these two cards inherently powerful when cast? Undoubtedly, but look at their casting cost!

Coalition Victory costs 3WUBRG! It takes some major setup time to get to this mana, and then the card does nothing unless you have all five basic land types and a creature of each color! Of course this is achievable in a well-built deck, but is it more powerful than other cards with alternate win conditions? I'm not so sure. Perhaps it is simply banned because it could suddenly make a game very unfun, but it begs the question--what is the Commander banned list truly for? Is Wizards policing fun, or policing power level?

Biorhythm also costs 8 mana and drastically reduces everyone's life total assuming they're not playing a ton of creatures. The card is powerful, but also symmetric in nature. A Commander deck would have to be built around creature generation in order to break that symmetry, and to me that sounds like a fun challenge rather than an oppressively powerful card. If I can play Apocalypse, I'd like to also play Biorhythm sometime.

Whether you agree with these honorable mentions or not, the bottom line is that Wizards of the Coast is now taking an active role in revamping Commander. This is likely going to lead to unbannings and shakeups to the format, which in turn will lead to some financial windfalls should you be holding the right cards at the right time. I don't advocate buying up a stack of copies of any card in speculation of potential unbanning--that's not a game I play anymore. Instead, I'd suggest thinking outside the box and consider picking up a copy or two for the potential chance to play the card. Just be careful that you're not chasing cards that have already doubled or tripled in price--if the unbannings don't happen, you'll be left holding a stack of cards no one can play.