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Portent is Really Awful (or is it?)

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Table of Contents:

  • Flint's Deck
  • So Sorry, Astral Slide
  • The Truth About "Flint's" Deck
  • Portent is Really Awful
  • Okay, Portent Might Not be That Awful

Part 1: Flint's Deck

"Make me Flint's Deck," Patrick entreated.

We all knew; we both knew, what deck he was asking to borrow.

Though the Good Doctor has many finishes (most of them virtual) under his Crossfit-chiseled belt, when we say Flint's Deck there is really only one seventy-five that anyone who knows anything associates with Flint Espil, PHD of Stanford University.

Dr. Espil used an updated hybrid of an old Zvi Mowshowitz list - surprisingly low tier deck from the perspective of most of the Premodern community at the time - to win what was then the largest gathering in the history of the format: The North American Premodern Championship of 2022. Premodern fans and longtime readers probably know that YT was the only person to take a match of off Dr. Espil, though history will better remember that he beat me in the Top 4.

"Sure," replied Our Hero.

You see, my friend and frequent Premodern playtest partner, Patrick O'Halloran-Gannon was to be returning to New York City in time for its December meetup. Patrick has been living mostly in Ireland (where apparently they play mostly Yu-Gi-Oh) though he did win a Streets of New Capenna Prerelease. Probably in a pub. He had put in most of the reps that got me my own Championship Top 4, and stoked a lot of my fire for the format beforehand.

The least I could do was make him a deck.

... But it, sadly, wouldn't be Flint's.

Due to a conflux of personal and professional misadventures, setbacks, and tragedies I just didn't have time to dig through the many boxes to make specifically Flint's take on 12/12 one-drops. A few days before the meetup I broke the news to Patrick.

"That's okay," he replied. After perusing my many already-assembled lists, he opted for Replenish.

Part 2: So Sorry, Astral Slide

If you read my Premodern update from last month, you probably know that Astral Slide is my favorite deck in Premodern.

Also we'll probably have to stop calling it Astral Slide as it might soon go from zero copies of the card Astral Slide to zero.

Here's the problem:

Putting together twelve players on the Wednesday before Christmas is actually pretty meaty. That's an accomplishment in and of itself in the Greatest City in the World, especially without spiritual leader Phil Nguyen (who would be rasslin' twins rather than shepherding Premodern aficionados). But at twelve players? And four rounds on a Wednesday night?

I would actually have a pretty high likelihood of playing Patrick!

Knowing Patrick would be on Replenish - a list packing main-deck Seal of Cleansing and ALL FOUR copies of Parallax Tide - there was no way I would go in playing Astral Slide. That's just playing the metagame.

And then there's...

Part 3: The Truth About "Flint's" Deck

So here's the side truth.

I just kind of wanted to play 12/12 myself! Not Flint's version, but more along the lines of what Tom Metelsky has been crushing with all over the format, and one of his PSS4 lists.

I was acquainted with Mono-Blue 12/12 from testing with Roland Chang. It probably isn't proper to use the term "traditional" for an archetype that was still emerging earlier in the year; but Roland's deck differed from the more recent Mono-Blues in a very specific way:

Lotus Petal

In case you don't know the combo, it starts with Phyrexian Dreadnought. Phyrexian Dreadnought is a 12/12 trampling monstrosity for only a single mana. Why hasn't it been dominating any and all formats since 1996?

It is fundamentally not long for this world!

However the card has combined with a number of powerful combination pieces over the years. Pandemonium, Trinket Mage, and even fuel for Sutured Ghoul in Flint's Deck are all good ways to take advantage of such high power for such low mana.

... But that's not how Mono-Blue does it.

Stifle
Vision Charm

By quickly following Phyrexian Dreadnought up with either Stifle or Vision Charm (or the lowly Reality Ripple, actually) you can turn a creature into a de facto two-card combination where you get to keep a 12/12 trampling creature. This isn't the kind of combo that wins in one turn, but its a heck of a clock to put on someone on turn two (or turn one with Lotus Petal).

Lotus Petal has fallen out of favor in Mono-Blue lists in recent months; including the version that Metelsky has so successfully popularized. I based my list on Tom's, except I kind of hate Portent.

The main differences in the main are:

  • -3 Portent
  • -1 Reality Ripple
  • +2 Peek
  • +2 Sleight of Hand

My sideboard was not super innovative but I basically wanted to go up to four copies of Boomerang for some combination of slower control decks, big creature decks (including the mirror), and random nonsense permanents like Worship.

Is Peek awful? Also awful?

Here's my thinking on Peek: It's a less powerful - but also far less conditional - card filtering spell than Portent. HOWEVER (and this is a bonus at instant speed) it can check if the "coast is clear" for deploying your Dreadnought.

A 12/12 trampling creature is powerful in the abstract but a Phyrexian Dreadnought is incredibly vulnerable in specific. Swords to Plowshares is in Premodern's Power Nine pantheon. Seal of Cleansing and Naturalize are main deck inclusions to almost every deck that can tap for white or green, respectively. Highly specific Red answers like Overload kill a Dreadnought cheaply; and widely applicable cards from Meltdown to Pyroblast either can kill it or will disrupt the necessary link with Vision Charm or Stifle.

Knowing the coast is clear seemed valuable to me before I actually played. But in practice, the fact that half the time you're executing the combination with Vision Charm mitigated the value somewhat. If you can execute a Vision Charm combo successfully, the Dreadnought will be out of removal reach until your next turn, when you can meet the opponent untapped, and hopefully with multiple permission spells at the ready.

  • Round One: Rebell with Burn

Rebell was playing a modified Burn deck with Seal of Fire in place of Urza's Bauble.

For me... I'm an Urza's Bauble guy. Aaron Dicks put Bauble on the map; and his Mono-Red list from the 2021 Easter Championship (a title he flew to Europe to defend successfully in 2022) is the single deck that made me fall in love with the format.

Bauble fuels Grim Lavamancer and lets Red Decks play a little lower land count. It's great!

But it does have some drawbacks, most importantly being that the draw doesn't happen immediately. That is enough for many players to shy away from Bauble, despite Aaron's clockwork-like ability to perform with it in any and all tournaments.

This was Rebell's first Premodern event... And she got the privilege of playing the Burn deck's worst matchup.

Both games were close, but neither were exciting. I would just say that there was a bit of lack of familiarity with the format (again, first event). Rebell played proactively in Game Three... Which is something you can't really do in this particular matchup.

In Game One there is very little a Red Deck can do about a one mana 12/12 creature. Certainly putting a Jackal Pup in its way is no path to victory.

But in sideboarded games it's a different matter. You can get any amount of clock - a lone Pup or even a Mogg Fanatic - and then play a Counter-Sliver game where you leave up at least the threat of Pyroblast to prevent a 12/12 from ever landing. And if it does? You have a built-in two-for-one with whatever artifact removal card you've sided in.

Staying "the beatdown" in sideboarded games signals that you don't have the proper interplay, giving the blue opponent a window to resolve a 12/12, often with Vision Charm, which will de facto defend it even if Red topdecks relevant removal. Once you untap you can just "protect the queen" with Counterspell, free spells, or Hydroblast; ensuring a two-turn clock.

Selfishly, I would recommend Slow Playing the Beatdown by Michael J. Flores for more on this mindset, and reactive Red Deck play in particular.

1-0 / 2-0

  • Round Two: Roland Chang with U/G Madness

Roland is our community's most decorated Eternal player. A multi-time Vintage and especially Legacy Champion, I've talked about Roland many times. Here he was with what I think (from observation anyway) is his favorite deck: flying Savage Bastards.

Roland caught my early combo with a permission spell; so I was basically playing with my back to the wall for several turns. On balance, he mostly had Counterspells, so I wasn't under a heavy clock until we approached the late game.

But come that late game, I did face a dilemma.

I was finally able to get a 12/12 into play (with Stifle) so I could defend myself.

On the other hand, I was down to five life, facing:

At five life I could block any of these but die to the other two. This is assuming Roland didn't have something like Unsummon or Boomerang to Juggernaut my blocker out of the way.

So I drew Portent!

News flash:

Part 4: Portent is Really Awful

I had a ton of cards at this point... Multiple Blue combo pieces, probably a Counterspell or three; some Islands.

Roland had no cards.

Portent could really put me over the top... If it was anything but Portent.

I turned over Phyrexian Dreadnought... But could not actually cast it.

... But of course I could not assemble the combo because Portent is really awful.

Was I dead?

Oh... There is a line.

I put Stifle on top of my deck and passed.

Roland drew up to one card and sent all three.

I drew the extra Stifle, then blocked Wild Mongrel. He paid two mana to pump Basking Rootwalla and discarded Arrogant Wurm to Aquamoeba (heck of a topdeck, that).

I Counterspelled Arrogant Wurm (go me!) and Stifled the power flip on Aquamoeba's activated ability. So I took only four instead of five! Life!

Mongrel went down, 12/12 number two was assembled; and heroes lived to play Game Two.

On turn one Portent is arguably the best card filtering option. Digging for three is in fact better than digging for two (or even one). But as a combo-assembler, it's terrible in the middle turns. What happened to me in this game is a really good example. Had it been Opt or Sleight of Hand (or maybe even Peek) I would have just made a 12/12 and have had the game on lock to almost anything.

If you dislike Urza's Bauble but still have Portent in your Blue lists, think about why you dislike the one that costs ZERO MANA so much but are willing to play 4 Portent without considering Sleight of Hand or other options.

Game Two had a lot of back-and-forth. I had Cursed Totem early, meaning that Roland was basically attacking for one or two with no Madness shenanigans while I played lands and assembled resources. Late game he had a pair of Gilded Drakes, but I Countered one and Boomerang-fizzled the other. To be fair, Roland was a little tight on mana (and Cursed Totem makes Madness really tight on mana) but charitably, he claimed that didn't determine the outcome.

2-0 / 4-0

  • Round Three: Jeff with Reanimator

Game One I just got the combo super quick and had multiple cover spells. We talk about how cerebral Mono-Blue 12/12 is... But sometimes you just have Vision Charm on turn two and untap with Counterspell, Daze, and Foil in your hand and can't lose.

Game Two was really interesting. I kept a one lander and didn't develop for a million years. Jeff got me with multiple discard spells, and was able to Cabal Therapy double Boomerang (which was to be my ace in the hole supposing he got his combo off).

But he just never played a Careful Study or Show and Tell!

On the last turn of the game I countered the Careful Study he FINALLY drew. Being stuck on one forever (and eventually two) matters a lot less if you can "go off" with just a second Island. Jeff died with a grip full of creatures more impressive than a "vanilla" 12/12... But no way to get one actually on the battlefield.

3-0 / 6-0

  • Round Four: Rich with This Girl

I AM A GENIUS.

That's what I was thinking, at least, as I played my solo Boomerang on Rich's first-turn Coastal Tower.

Man, oh, man this is going to be awesome!

He didn't even have to discard.

A moment later I realized he was Brian Kowal's This Girl, and not some Azorius Control variant... And suddenly I realized how cavalier I had been with my precious one-of Boomerang.

Oh well, Rich didn't know what kind of Mono-Blue Draw-Go variant I was either. Stasis? A turn-four 12/12 informed him.

I let a couple of Fire // Ice delay the inevitable, saving my permission on the possible Swords to Plowshares or Seal of Cleansing that would have actually mattered.

Game Two had my favorite sequence of the event. I had to Foil a Meddling Mage; which was painful in a way but also essential so that it couldn't, you know, name "Phyrexian Dreadnought" and lock me completely out.

On turn five, Rich played This Girl's big spell:

Future Sight

I let that one resolve and answered on my turn one of my sideboard's little spoilers:

Winter Orb

He revealed Swords to Plowshares with Future sight the following turn, but there was no way he could reasonably operate a deck full of Angels on one mana per turn... Not against my fist full of free Counterspells.

4-0 / 8-0

Part 5: Okay, Portent Might Not be That Awful

I'm pretty sure it is... But there is one thing you might not have considered amidst my argument.

As a digging card, Portent is highly valuable on turn one. It is bunk and poop emoji in the mid-game at assembling the combo, because you can't assemble and execute on it in the same turn.

But there is one other thing Portent can do.

If you already have a lead, you can Portent the opponent. Not only can you goof up the top of a careless opponent's library for purposes of an Enlightened Tutor or something like that... You can just put a land or two on top, ensuring they will not be able to answer a 12/12 that is already in play for the two turns you need to swing, swing, and kill.

I still think the card is weaker on average than Sleight of Mind, but it is important to recognize there is a version of it that I never used in this event: Which is to aim at the other guy.

Thanks as always to Jeff for hosting. Mono-Blue 12/12 is great. Premodern, as a whole, is even better.

LOVE

MIKE

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