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Standard Review: The Pre-Magic 2014 Metagame

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The following graph displays the most successful deck archetypes of Standard over the last month based on Top 16 appearances in major tournaments. These are the decks you may want to play—and should certainly expect to face—in a Standard event.

The metagame remains fairly diverse so long as you like aggressive, creature-based decks. Jund Midrange is still the top dog on the tournament scene, and Bant Auras has slipped into a second-place tie with Reanimator. Both Jund and Bant appear to be receiving valuable tools from Magic 2014, so I don’t expect this to change anytime soon.

I took a look at the metagame breakdown between now and two weeks ago to identify how the archetypes are trending. The following graph shows the biggest increases and decreases in metagame share.

Bant Auras is the biggest gainer by far, propelled by extreme success at Grand Prix Miami. RG Aggro decks, like this one in fifteenth place at SCG Open Worcester, have increased by 4%. Junk Varolz decks, like this Worcester-winning list, have found Top 16 success as well. Aggressive Naya decks have seen a big drop in the last couple weeks, down 11% in total.

Let’s take a closer look at a couple of the top archetypes of the metagame to help build your own version—or prepare to face them.

Jund Midrange

Jund has been a beast of the tournament Top 16 scene for some time. The graph below shows its consistency over numerous major tournaments, culminating with five Top 16 appearances at SCG Open Worcester this past weekend.

Let’s take a look at the cards typically included in this archetype. The graph below is based on the Jund Midrange decks that made the Top 16 of a major tournament in the last month. The left side shows the percent of decks each card appeared in, and the right is the average number of copies in the main and sideboard. This should give you an idea of what cards you’ll face in Game 1 versus Games 2 and 3 after sideboarding.

Ruric Thar, the Unbowed has become something of a sideboard staple. Reid Duke included it in his Grand Prix Miami–winning deck, and all five Jund Midrange decks at SCG Open Worcester did the same. Wolfir Avenger is a much newer inclusion: Two copies were played in the main of this deck from Worcester. Sire of Insanity is on its way out and has seen no play over the last couple weeks.

A number of options to help address hexproof creatures are on the rise in the Jund Midrange sideboard. This deck includes two copies of Barter in Blood, and this deck includes Devour Flesh along with one copy of Gaze of Granite, which has additional value as a creature sweeper. Curse of Death's Hold is also trending upward and works quite well against Lingering Souls, Falkenrath Aristocrat, Avacyn's Pilgrim, and others.

Bant Auras

Bant Auras, also known as Bant Hexproof, has been less consistent than Jund in terms of Top 16 appearances, but it had a huge showing at Grand Prix Miami a couple weeks ago and appears to be on the upswing overall.

Let’s break down the most common cards of Bant Auras decks over the last month.

Bant Auras has a core of hexproof and otherwise tough-to-handle creatures and cheap enchantments to buff them that make up the heart of the deck. Beyond that, a wide array of options to supplement this aggressive and hard-to-interact-with strategy have seen play. One decision point for the deck is whether to include Fencing Ace or Strangleroot Geist in the main deck. This deck uses a pair of Aces as powerful early attackers, while this one sticks with Geists as a more resilient threat. Half of the decks, such as this one, use Silverblade Paladin for more double-striking power, whereas others take a safer route and include Spell Rupture in the main deck.

The following graphs show the most-played cards in Top 16 decks of major tournaments over the last month. These cards are worth keeping in mind as you consider what threats—and responses to your threats—you are most likely to face. The average number of copies between main and sideboard are also provided to give an idea of what is more likely in Game 1 against post-sideboarded decks.

Thundermaw Hellkite has increased over 14% when compared to Top 16 data from two weeks ago. It has been included in a number of archetypes including Jund Midrange, the sideboards of UWR Tempo decks, and in the second-place Worcester Jund Aggro deck.

Abrupt Decay has increased nearly 20% compared to Top 16 data from two weeks ago. It is included in nearly all Jund Midrange decks, as seen above, but it also saw play in 100% of the Reanimator decks of the last month.

Those familiar with my weekly Standard column will notice some pretty major changes this week. I stepped back to analyze the metagame more broadly rather than focus on the results of a single tournament. My goal is to provide clear and concise information to help players build and tune decks and prepare for events. I’m experimenting with ideas and am interested in your constructive feedback. Please let me know what you like here, what you miss from the old style, and any other data you’d like to see either in the comments or on Twitter. Thanks for reading!

Nick Vigabool

@MrVigabool


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