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Predicting the Pro Tour in 2011

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Update: on Sept. 1st, 2010 Wizards announced the 2011 schedule. You can see the official schedule here: Wizards Announces 2011 Pro Tour ‘Magic Weekends’

With two of the 2010's Pro Tours done, it’s time to look to the future, and gaze into my crystal ball to discern the locations for the 2011 Pro tour. I would have done this last year, but the schedule caught me off guard.

My best guess? Based on Pro Tour history, I say we’ll kick off the 2011 Pro Tour season with Pro Tour New Orleans. Looking over its nearly fifteen-year history, I feel there’s enough data to make an educated guesses. New Orleans has hosted the Pro Tour twice before, 2001 and 2003. Obviously, it might have been slated for another event sooner, but Hurricane Katrina struck and it seemed less like a vacation destination for Pro players.

Enough time has passed, the city is largely recovered, and there can be little doubt that it would be ready to handle another Pro Tour. Kicking it off in the spring, before the bugs and summer heat get to be too bad, would obviously be preferable to a later-in-the-year event held in the deep south of Louisiana.

From NOLA, I think the Pro Tour jumps across the Atlantic to Vienna. Originally I had predicted Brussels, forgetting that they had just hosted a GP this year. While hosting a GP the previous year does not necessarily preclude it from being a Pro Tour location—except in south east Asia—it makes it a long shot. So I’m switching to Vienna. It’s a central-ish European location, never been a PT host, and the last Austrian GP was 2008. I strongly felt that Germany, Austria, or Belgium would play host to a PT. I alternated between Vienna and Berlin (a popular destination and great city) but my gut tells me Vienna.

From there, we pass through the long summer months with the string of Grand Prixes, all of which lead us to another new Pro Tour destination: Hong Kong. The picking of Hong Kong has nothing to do with the return of Magic in Traditional Chinese, at least not directly. Asia is continuing to grow with record setting attendance at their GPs and China especially is a market Wizards would love to continue to gain traction in, making Hong Kong a powerful destination for their goals.

Hong Kong is another city that I am surprised we have not visited for a Pro tour yet. It has hosted two GPs—2001 and 2004—both of which were limited events. But it also lacked in attendance, leading to its exit as a regular Asian host city.

However, times have changed and Hong Kong continues to thrive as an economic center in Asia. While it may not be the next heart of Magic, it should provide a vibrant and exciting venue for a Pro tour and one that players would be excited to travel to and explore.

I would dream that we might see a fourth Pro Tour stop added this year. We’ve enjoyed two banner years for Magic participation and sales, but I think that Wizards will make the wise call and remain at three events. Going back to four risks over extending, and as wisdom states: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

The Pro Tour and competitive Magic is thriving, so as much as we would love to see another Pro tour, it isn't needed yet. Another year—and if that year is as powerful and successful as the past two—and then the pressure may have built to a level where a fourth Pro tour becomes necessary.

However, there will be one more stop in the 2011 Pro Tour schedule. Looking back over history, the pattern seems to be two North American / US World Championships, then two elsewhere.

1996-1998 - US (Seattle x 3)

1999-2000 - Foreign (Tokyo + Brussels)

2001 - North America (Toronto)

2002 - 2003 - Foreign (Sydney + Berlin)

2004 - US (San Francisco)

2005 - 2006 - Foreign (Yokohama + Paris)

2007 - 2008 - US (New York + Memphis)

2009 - 2010 - Foreign (Rome + Chiba)

2011 - 2012 - ??

I love Chicago. It's one of my favorite cities. But my personal love for the city aside, it is also an excellent venue for competitive Magic. It's been a host venue for the Pro Tour four times, but not since 2003. Since then it's hosted two GPs—2004 and 2009.

Where better for Craig Gibson, the Pro Tour photographer, to snap a photo of a player holding the World Championship trophy than from the observation deck of the Sears Tower?

It would be a fantastic place to finish out what would be an exciting and dramatic Pro tour season, especially given the new format changes and what the upcoming sets have in hold for us! From New Orleans to Vienna to Hong Kong and to Chicago—whether I'm right or wrong, 2011 should be an epic year for Magic players the world over.

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