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Quiet Speculation - Card Advantage

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Extended season is right around the corner, and most people are still scrambling for cards. As usual, there will be a rise in demand as January 2nd approaches. While strategy is not normally the focus of my column, a brief metagame discussion is necessary to understand which decks are most popular and thus, which combination of cards is most economical while still being competitive.

The extended metagame can be broken down into a few basic archetypes. There are the aggro decks; faster and slower versions of Zoo and the Bant varieties. There are control decks like Tezzerator and Dark Depths (which can turn into a combo deck without much stress), and then there's straight-up combo. Hypergenesis is still a legitimate threat, as is Dredge. There are other fringe decks like All-In Red and some burn lists, but the 7 main decks that occupy the metagame are Fast Zoo, Slow Zoo, Bant, Tezzerator, Hypergenesis, Dredge and Dark Depths. The top-placing lists of each archetype from Worlds will follow the article.

The Lands

Running the numbers, the most popular Ravnica dual lands are listed below. This should serve as a rough guide for the most-demanded lands in the format, by quantity included in the decks below.

  1. Hallowed Fountain: 6
  2. Watery Grave: 6
  3. Breeding Pool: 5
  4. Temple Garden: 4

All of the other dual lands were used in quantities of 3 or fewer. As far as fetch lands are concerned, you may have them from Standard season, but if not, these are the ones to focus on.

  1. Verdant Catacomb: 13
  2. Scalding Tarn: 12
  3. Misty Rainforest: 9
  4. Arid Mesa: 8
  5. Marsh Flats: 0

Meddling MageIf it's even possible, Verdant Catacombs are going to be in even more demand. Not only is it a staple in Standard, it's a staple in Extended too. How about a few top cards from the non-lands? The cards marked with a * are shared between the two Zoo versions, which is not a full archetype difference and is thus somewhat misleading but overall should be considered.

  1. Meddling Mage: 12*
  2. Chalice of the Void: 7
  3. Engineered Explosives: 6
  4. Chrome Mox: 7
  5. Noble Hierarch: 8*
  6. Umezawa's Jitte: 9
  7. Tarmogoyf: 12*
  8. Vendilion Clique: 6

Even factoring in the big/little Zoo split, Meddling Mage and Tarmogoyf are by far the most popular non-land cards. Tarmogoyf is no surprise, but seeing the former chase rare there amongst format staples is rather surprising. Meddling Mage appears an awful lot in the X-1 and better bracket at worlds, so its probably time to get your playset, and a few to trade in January.

Despite there not being a Faerie deck in sight, Vendilion Clique continues to do work and deliver the business. As a 3/1 flier that can disrupt combo decks at instant speed, Vendilion Clique might be one of the most under-played cards in the format for how excellent it is against the field.

Umezawa's JitteUmezawa's Jitte, once an essential card to almost every extended deck, remains strong but mostly relegated to sideboards. Although unlikely, any opportunity to snag one on the cheap should be taken quickly.

With a good idea of what the most popular cards are, let's take a look at what that means for building a deck. Meddling Mage and Tarmogoyf are both very popular cards, and share a deck with some of the other popular cards. For the purpose of this exercise, we'll consider the two Zoo decks to be essentially different. One is much closer to the Sligh model than the other, so they occupy different space in the metagame while being accessible to those learning the format. A deck like Zoo is far more forgiving than one like Dredge or Tezzeret. It seems that Zoo is a good place to start.

Of the lands, Zoo uses Verdant Catacombs which is on "the list", as well as a pair of Scalding Tarns. Unfortunately, it doesn't use either Watery Grave or Hallowed Fountain. Grove of the Burnwillows aren't even in any other decks, nor are Stomping Ground. It seems like we should look towards Tezzerator and Dredge to get the most out of our mana base. The non-land package gives you access to Tarmogoyf and Noble Hierarch, which are also played in Bant. Knight of the Reliquary is also in both zoo decks and is sometimes played in Bant.

Moving away from the Aggro decks, and towards the "blue" decks, we see Chalice and Chrome Mox as the top placers. Those two cards include Tezzerator and Dark Depths decks, which share none of their mana base. They do also share Engineered Explosives, but unfortunately that's about it.

Hypergenesis is an oddball deck in this list. Most of the cards the deck requires are not in any other deck, and are relatively expensive nonetheless. Hypergenesis is a combo deck that's easy to stop, but remains popular and effective nonetheless. If you plan to build this, understand that you're not getting any extra value out of your cards.

That brings us to Dredge. Good old Dredge. Unlike Hypergenesis, Dredge isn't all-in on one plan. While Hedron Crab might not "get there", Dredge players are plucky enough to play around a Turn Zero Leyline of the Void. Thus, it seems like a sound choice for the metagame. Sharing 2nd and 3rd most popular fetch lands and the top 3 fetch lands, it seems like Dredge gives a frugal player the most versatile mana base for building other decks. Despite the fact that Dredge's non-land cards are in no other decks, it seems that the diverse mana base is worth it. Not much in the main deck or sideboard really compares to $400 for Baneslayer Angel and Tarmogoyf playsets, and is really quite cheap overall. Given the power and proven consistency of the deck and the way the numbers line up, Dredge seems like a very good choice for the upcoming season. The deck is not easy to play, so only venture into the world of the dead if you have the time to commit to testing.

The rough math done above does not take into account each deck's metagame share, but with equal consideration to all decks. Consider your play style and your local metagame when deciding upon a deck. And now, the lists used:

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