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Modern Master

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A few weeks ago, I covered the basics on how to make your Commander collection work for you, and it seems people really enjoyed that article, so this week, I am going to talk about another topic in the same light: Modern. Modern has been a rollercoaster ride of spikes and reprints since it came on to the scene two years ago. In this ever-changing landscape, it can be difficult to be certain a card you go in on will not just end up in the next Planechase set. This week, I am going to talk about some of the ways to not only minimize your risk when buying into the format, but also on how to tell when it is the best time to move those gems.

Liliana of the Veil
The biggest piece of advice I can give is to keep your investments small. I would not want to be deep on Liliana of the Veil even if her price has been climbing—just because the potential for a reprint is there. Unlike Legacy, we have been told that many of the staples that may be inaccessible now will probably see a reprint to create an environment that hopes to turn few people away due to the entry-level cost. With this in mind, it is good to stay away from cards that probably cannot see a substantial spike, as there may be just as good of a chance of a future reprint to shut that hope down.

My current Modern investments fall into the category of cheap staples and sideboard options. I feel that in a format that rewards people for not only knowing the metagame but also the tech to beat it, we are most likely to see price spikes on cards that consistently do well or shut down the tier-one decks. Birthing Pod is still my card I am deep on, as it still seems to be among the best strategies in the format and has at least two variations, both of which run four of the namesake card. These can still be found below $5 everywhere, and though that is a bit much for people to invest in cash, it is certainly a fine number to trade them at.

The key to identifying a card that has the potential to spike is to not only look at the playability; you must also look at the set it originates from and how opened and available that set is in the current market. Cards such as Fulminator Mage and Horizon Canopy have never been reprinted; thus, once the cards began to see any play, they immediately went through the roof as people realized how hard they are to find. Not every card that sees play and goes up will fall into this category, but targeting cards that have perhaps flown under the radar and are from an old set is usually a recipe for success.

Tombstalker
With the recent release of Modern Masters, we have seen a number of price drops on relatively expensive cards such as Tombstalker and Academy Ruins. Though these cards may not be considered staples of the format, they certainly both will have a place down the road, making them great long-term investments. Not only have these just been reprinted, meaning they are unlikely to do so again soon, they also dropped to almost the floor for a playable card and have nowhere to go but up from here. There are a number of cards in the past year that have tanked due to a reprint, and since no one has been concentrating on the format recently, they have stayed relatively low in price. Picking these cards up now seems to be the right play, as they will probably see at least a minor bump when Modern Pro Tour Qualifier season rolls around and are unlikely to ever drop as low as they are again.

As for selling cards when they reach their peaks, it is always best to get out just as the market begins to plateau. Holding out on Modern cards seems to be a place I am not comfortable being—because of the potential for a reprint or even a slight metagame shift. Some cards will stay expensive, and though you may have been able to hold out for a few extra dollars, I find it wiser to get out while the market is favorable and other people who may be looking for them to play with still actually need them. I have noticed that even with cards such as Horizon Canopy and Fulminator Mage that once they hit their peaks, they are incredibly hard to move. The player market usually dips even if the retail number remains, and unless you can trade them out, it doesn’t matter if the card is theoretically worth thirty or more if you cannot move them. It is also important to note that unless a card will be a four-of in the future, I would hold off from buying extreme quantities. Unlike Standard, there is not yet enough of a Modern following to allow vendors to buy hundreds of copies of the same card, as they do not want to sit on them for a year any more than you do. With this in mind, I would usually stick to buying fewer than a hundred copies of any given card and begin to move them as soon as the market begins the upward swing. You may find the later copies sell for more than the first few if the market rises, but it is all money made at that point and feels much better to leave a few dollars on the table than to have a few play sets of a card no one is seeking.

Fulminator Mage
It should also be noted that foils seem relatively undisturbed for Modern at the moment, and with the format gaining a legitimate following, I am seeing more and more people begin the process of foiling out their decks. Anyone who follows the Legacy market knows what sorts of astronomical prices some of those foils can demand, and though Modern cards are easier to find, we are already seeing some of the crossover cards gain a reasonable percentage in the past year. With this second season of PTQs coming up, I would not be surprised to see a number of foils double or triple in price by the end of it. Foils are also relatively safe from reprints, as the original copies will usually hold a higher percent than the nonpremium versions.

The key to the entire market is to make sure you are not the one holding too many copies of any one thing—diversify your hot potatoes so as to not get yourself burned in the end. Allow yourself to begin moving cards earlier than you would for a Standard or Legacy spike, and keep on top of coverage. Checking sideboards for the latest tech can give you a glimpse into what people don’t feel they have good matches against, thus allowing you to take that a step further and look at potential options to neutralize that tech. Staying a step ahead of the metagame puts you in positions to see cards such as Fulminator Mage before they spike and gives you time to invest, as unlike Standard cards, you also may not have the chance to buy a ton of copies online.

With the recent response to the Commander article I wrote two weeks ago, it seems people are more interested in that subject than I originally anticipated. If the readers are interested, I may look at interviewing Jason Alt about his recent obsession with the format and his opinion on the subject. I believe having an inside opinion can only help you guys, as I am not a huge fan of the modern-age, five-color format. Alternatively, if you have anything specific to add to the previous article, message me or leave a comment below, and I will do my best to work a few in to the article.

Leave your opinion below in the comments, and let me know any other subjects you may be interested in me covering in this fashion. I am hoping to do a few more follow-ups in this fashion for formats such as Legacy and even Block for those online players out there. As always, thank you for reading, and keep up the responses; I am always happy to see what you, as the community, feel are important topics to cover. Join me again—same time, same place—as I hope to have an interview lined up for an awesome website I was recently turned on to.

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