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Assessing Inovcations

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Another set another set of masterpieces, right? This time I think it is a “beauty is in the eye of its beholder” set. This week I want to take a look at Amonkhet Invocations and try to decipher where they have to go from here.

Now

There are not a ton of prices available for the new Amonkhet Invocations but StarCityGames has definitely drawn the line in the sand with Force of Will at $300. Is it over priced? It’s too early to tell, really. Force of Will only has two foil printings and both are approximately between $300 and $325. I don’t think $300 will be where this ends up. The trend with masterpiece cards that have previous foils is that the overall price of all of the foil copies fall.

Temple Garden was part of the first series of Expeditions and has the longest price history to look at. The dip of its foil price started a little early but continued to decline since it was released as an Expedition. Clearly this was the cheapest version available before Expeditions so let’s take a look at the much rarer, Ravnica: City of Guilds foil.

The price of Ravnica foils has actually increased a tiny bit since the release of Expeditions, but recently has seen a big recession in price. Part of the problem with this graph is likely due to the lack of availability causing some price fluctuations but the net result is that the expedition ends up a little higher.

So what happens to Force of Will now? I have to expect they will see a healthy decrease in price unless there are a lot of people that really don’t like the new Expedition. Trying to pick a price point right now is pretty hard but I would estimate you will be able to find foil Force of Wills for $250 by Christmas.

What about the rest?

There are a bunch of different “classes” I would put these masterpieces into. Desirability, playability, and frequency are the biggest factors that drive the price of masterpieces. We don’t know what the rest of the masterpieces will be yet (we’re missing 5 that are presumably new cards, one of each color) but the absolute floor seems to be $20. Aether Revolt currently holds the record for the cheapest masterpiece but I think Amonkhet has some that could break that record. Trying to guess exact prices is probably a lost cause but I would like to group them in terms of playability and expected future value.

High value:

Mid Value:

Low Value:

High Value cards I expect to maintain their current value or dip slightly. Mid Value cards will probably end up between $25 and $50 and low value cards will be lower than $25.

What to expect in the future

Well like most pre-order prices, I wouldn’t buy any masterpieces unless you really need it right away. We’ve seen pretty consistently high prices for initial orders and pretty consistent drops across the board. I think it’s safe to say you don’t really need to buy any of these right away even if you think the art style is cool. Long time, however, these might be one of the most unique masterpieces and in 5+ years we could see these foils start to creep up because of their novelty.

How does this affect the value of the set?

In my last masterpiece article I explained that a lot of the value of a set now is tied up in these ultra-rare cards. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is once again the case but it might be slightly less than usual due to the fact that this set is likely to be under-opened (as spring sets often are) and the border is so controversial. The average price of the masterpieces will definitely be lower than Battle for Zendikar and Kaladesh because of card type alone. I know it’s a weird thing to say but lands are almost always universally more expensive than artifacts which are more expensive than colored cards because of how Magic decks are constructed. I would be surprised to see them continue to hold a large portion of the set but we will still see some amount of it absorbed by the masterpieces. That being said, this set of masterpieces is really just a hodge-podge of things. I can’t say with any certainty what card types will even be in the next 20 Invocations.

These masterpieces are weird!

Has anyone else noticed there are currently no Mono-Green Amonkhet Invocations? I am guessing there is a lore reason for this and maybe we’ll get some Green cards in the next set (Hour of Devastation) but I find it very interesting that there aren’t any in this set. I would expect one of the remaining 5 to be a Green one (since we got 5 — one of each color — in Kaladesh).

Final Thoughts

If you own any foils of any of the cards that are about to get masterpieces I would probably consider selling them. This goes double if you don’t actually play with them. The trend for pack foils has been them decreasing pretty quickly upon the release of a masterpiece. If you’re lucky enough to open any masterpieces at the pre-release I’d probably also try to sell those as quickly as possible. None of the masterpieces have ever been more expensive than their pre-order price.


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